How far does South Africa's hold over Australia really reach?

South Africa have secured the ODI series against Australia with Temba Bavuma and David Miller driving their batting. The broader history gives that victory weight: South Africa have won 33 of the 57 men’s ODIs between these sides since January 2006. Their advantage has had time to establish itself.

Sportstar’s tally of 19 South African wins in the last 25 meetings makes the recent relationship look considerably more oppressive. Australia have become an opponent South Africa should expect to beat. That is a demanding standard, and this series has upheld it.

The rankings deserve a challenge

The ICC places Australia third and South Africa fourth in men’s ODIs. That ordering makes South Africa’s repeated success sound like a challenge to an established hierarchy. Our ratings give a stronger reason to regard them as the superior side.

We give South Africa a 60% chance of beating an average men’s ODI side, against Australia’s 49%. The rivalry therefore fits a wider difference in strength. South Africa’s dominance deserves recognition among compelling bilateral stories, while that broader benchmark leaves them plenty to prove against the rest.

Different batting contributions

Bavuma’s contribution deserves proportion. His men’s ODI batting average over the last two years is 33.75, against 32.4 for top-seven batters. That is a modest advantage. This series-winning contribution should raise expectations of him, because his recent batting has offered only a narrow edge over the benchmark.

Miller brings a more pronounced scoring advantage. His career men’s ODI strike rate is 104, against the recent top-seven benchmark of 84. Sustaining that pace across a career gives South Africa a substantial attacking resource. We should expect him to supply the acceleration that makes their batting especially difficult to contain.

Keep the expectation high

Our forecast gives South Africa a 77% chance of winning Wednesday’s third ODI, with Australia at 23%. That is an emphatic assessment of the next meeting, consistent with the report’s account of this rivalry.

South Africa have earned the burden of expectation. With the series secured, another victory is the standard we should hold them to.