An Oddsworth Opinion
How much is Temba Bavuma's 179 worth to South Africa?
The story
Temba Bavuma's 179 against Australia has left South Africa as the only side with a genuine shot at winning the Test, ESPNcricinfo reports. The captain says they will push for victory, and whether they can make Australia follow on looks likely to decide the result.
ESPNcricinfo · 21 October at 20:17 BST'We obviously want to go for the win' - Bavuma's 179 gives South Africa a chance to dreamRead the full storyTemba Bavuma's 179 has turned this Test South Africa's way. Their captain says his side want to win a match that only they now look capable of winning, and the follow-on will probably decide whether they do. In the first Test at Kingsmead he made 3 and 1, two visits of 27 and 18 balls that lasted about as long as it takes a kettle to boil twice, and Australia won by 214 runs.
His previous highest Test score was 172, which says something about how rarely a long career has produced a really big innings. Our ratings still hold that career against him, placing him 58th among Test batters and worth 6.3 runs a match less than an average player. Over the last two years, though, he has averaged 50.86 in men's Tests, against 33.22 for top-seven batters, and that is the record of a batter carrying his side.
Career average 37.4Not out
What is South Africa's chance of winning now?
Before this Test our forecast could not split the sides, giving each a 42% chance of winning and leaving the rest to the draw. A total built around the captain's 179 has closed off most of Australia's road to victory, so South Africa's chance is now whatever they can take back from the draw. That is why the follow-on matters so much: sending Australia straight back in saves the time South Africa would otherwise spend batting again, and time is the thing a draw feeds on.
Our ratings make South Africa the fourth-best Test side, with a 66% chance of beating an average side. They are good enough to finish this off if they give their bowlers the overs.
Why a draw is the real danger for South Africa
Australia won at Kingsmead, so they lead the series. A draw in this Test would send South Africa to Newlands needing to win, and our call for that third Test makes them 39% to Australia's 44%. Home advantage offers no rescue on those terms.
That is the case for the follow-on if the scores allow it, because a match that drifts towards a draw leaves Australia with a series lead to protect at the ground where our forecast already has them ahead. The batter who could not survive 30 balls at Kingsmead has given South Africa their best position of the series, and he should spend it on the follow-on.
Tuesday 27 October 2026, 10:30am SAST