What do Bavuma and Miller’s hundreds tell us about South Africa?

Bavuma and Miller’s centuries carried South Africa to the series-clinching victory over Australia, and Miller’s contribution deserves top billing. His 142 from 93 balls equalled his career best in men’s ODIs. Even against his own substantial standards, this was an exceptional innings.

The shared achievement of reaching a hundred obscures the different jobs these innings suggest. We should want Bavuma to provide the substance that lets Miller attack with that freedom.

Bavuma’s standard is higher

Bavuma’s career batting average in men’s ODIs is 44.07, against 38.43 over the last two years and 32.64 for top-seven batters during that period. His recent batting has remained useful by the wider standard while falling short of the benchmark he established himself.

That makes this hundred a performance South Africa should demand he builds on. His strike rate over the same period matches the top-seven benchmark exactly. The case for Bavuma rests on the weight of his runs; asking him to supply Miller’s acceleration would misunderstand where his advantage lies.

Miller has raised the tempo

Miller’s career strike rate in men’s ODIs is 104.7. Over the last two years it rises to 125, across six innings. The innings against Australia therefore belongs to a recent spell of faster scoring from a batter whose career already supports an attacking brief.

Six innings leave plenty for him to establish through repetition. They also give South Africa a clear instruction: preserve the freedom behind that scoring pace. Making Miller more restrained would waste the strongest feature of his recent batting.

Expect another win

The report’s sixth successive series win fits a side our men’s ODI ratings give a 60% chance of beating an average side, against Australia’s 49%. This result follows the strength of the teams as we rate them.

Our forecast gives South Africa a 77% chance in the next ODI, compared with 76% before the series-clinching match. The hundreds reinforce an expectation that was already strong. South Africa should now demand another winning performance from this batting partnership.