What makes Maharaj such a difficult problem for Australia?

Cricket.com.au presents Keshav Maharaj as Australia's biggest threat, and his recent ODI spells give that argument substance: his 4/20 against Australia this September belongs alongside his 5/33 against them last August. Australia have already experienced the damage he can do. We should take the repeat performance seriously.

His latest return adds a different reason for concern. Maharaj took 2/54 while Australia made 333 at The Wanderers. That was a demanding innings in which to keep contributing with the ball, and it strengthens the case for treating him as a threat even when Australia's batting holds together.

Wickets are the stronger argument

Across men's ODIs over the last two years, Maharaj's bowling average is 26.7, against the overall bowling benchmark of 30.99. His success against Australia sits within a wider spell of effective wicket-taking. Australia should expect a bowler whose recent returns justify an attacking role.

The economy comparison is less striking: Maharaj has conceded 5.08 runs an over in men's ODIs over that period, against the overall benchmark of 5.25. The stronger reason to respect him is the price he pays for wickets. Describing him chiefly as someone who keeps scoring down would undersell the danger.

Where he stands

Our ratings place Maharaj 13th among men's ODI bowlers across every side, worth 0.7 runs a match better than an average player. That puts his Australian performances in perspective: across all opponents he rates as a sound ODI spinner, some way below the format's best, so the case for fearing him rests on what he has done against Australia.

We would give him licence to pursue wickets. Those destructive returns against Australia make a persuasive case for using him to break an innings open.

Australia's wider problem

South Africa's strength makes that role more consequential. Our men's ODI team ratings give them a 60% chance of beating an average side, against Australia's 49%. Focusing the entire Australian response on Maharaj would underestimate the opposition around him.

Our forecast gives South Africa a 77% chance of winning the third ODI at JB Marks Oval. Australia need a response that survives Maharaj's wicket-taking threat and still produces enough against South Africa as a whole. Simply seeing him off is too modest an ambition.