An Oddsworth Opinion
The number that argues with Maharaj's top billing
The talk ahead of Kingsmead has Keshav Maharaj down as the spinner Australia's left-handers should dread, the left-armer taking top billing while Simon Harmer plays the warm-up act. Our men's Test bowling ratings have the bill printed the other way up. Harmer is the 14th-best Test bowler in the world on our list, worth nearly 10 runs a match more than an average player. Maharaj sits 36th, nearly five runs a match worse than an average player, and nowhere near the top of this bill.
The long road
Maharaj has earned his billing the long way, across 62 Tests since November 2016, and the last two years have been the best of them. The big hauls have kept coming, against Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and his bowling average over that spell has come down to 23.53, against 29.22 across his whole career.
The odd one out is the match that matters here. His one Test against Australia in that run, in June 2025, brought a single wicket from 12 overs, in a game South Africa won by five wickets.
3.7 a match in his career
The short, strange one
Harmer's story is shorter and stranger. He has played 14 Tests since January 2015, and the last four of them, against Pakistan and India last October and November, are why he sits where he does on our list: 30 wickets at an average of 14.3. Put another way, a wicket every 14 runs for four Tests running.
Four Tests is a thin base, and Australia were in none of them. The last time Harmer bowled at them, in January 2023, he went through the match without a wicket.
4.9 a match in his career
Top of the bill
Which of the two should Australia worry about more? Our ratings say the off-spinner, and Harmer's career bowling average of 21.8 against Maharaj's 29.22 says the same. Four Tests of evidence set against a decade of them is a fair objection, but the gap between the two is wide enough to survive it. Maharaj can keep the top billing. The headline act is the one in smaller print.