How far can Cummins shift the balance against South Africa?

The hope behind an Australian recovery is easy to understand: bring Pat Cummins back and South Africa have a harder game. Yet Cummins took seven wickets for 87 runs in the World Test Championship final at Lord’s in June 2025, and South Africa still won by five wickets.

Australia got exactly what they now want from Cummins that week, and South Africa chased down their target anyway. His availability alone can’t settle the question.

The strength of the case

Cummins has earned the faith. Over the last two years of men’s Tests his bowling average is 18.74, against an average of 29.29 for all bowlers in the same matches. Australia want that bowler on the field when they need to force a result.

Our ratings place him sixth among men’s Test bowlers, worth about 21 runs a match more than an average player. The Lord’s final shows the limit of that: even with Cummins at his best, Australia still need enough from the rest of the side to win.

The ODI hurdle

Wednesday’s third ODI in South Africa is the next test of it, and our forecast gives Australia a 23% chance of winning against South Africa’s 77%. His Test record speaks to his class more than to what he brings to a 50-over game.

Australia are getting back one of the finest Test bowlers around, and they are right to welcome him. Expecting him to overturn South Africa’s advantage on his own is a much bigger ask, and South Africa stay clear favourites.