Is Matt Renshaw's Durban 190 the start of something at No. 5?

Pat Cummins expects Matt Renshaw to stay at No. 5 for the second Test at St George's Park, and after Kingsmead it would take a stubborn captain to say anything else. Renshaw made 190 and 82 from three-drop, rescuing a wobbling first innings and setting Australia on their way to a big win over South Africa. The 190 was the kind of long, patient stay at the crease that rewrites a selection meeting before anyone has poured the coffee.

What did Renshaw do before Durban?

The awkward part is the nine Tests before it. Between a tour of India in 2017 and a Bangladesh Test in August this year, his innings went down like a row of deckchairs in a gale, most of them in single figures, with a 45 against Bangladesh in 2017 as the high point. Those nine Tests were scattered across most of a decade, with nothing at all between a Test against South Africa in March 2018 and the next one in January 2023.

Even with Durban counted, his career Test average across 16 men's Tests is 37. One match is doing nearly all the lifting in that figure.

What do the Sheffield Shield ratings say?

Domestic cricket is the nearest thing to a second opinion, and it is lukewarm. Our Sheffield Shield batting ratings put Renshaw 14th of 75, which sounds healthy until you see the figure behind it: about half a run a match worse than an average Shield batter. So the case for him as a top-tier No. 5 rests on one Test, with no big Shield record underneath to hold it up.

That matters more in this side than most. Our ratings make Australia the best Test team in the world, with a 77% chance of beating an average side, and a place in the middle order of the best team is about the hardest one in the game to keep on a single match.

Should Renshaw stay at No. 5?

Yes, and Cummins is right to say so. A left-hander who can bat for most of a day, and then take 2 for 30 with his off-spin, has earned the next two Tests.

Durban does not make him a top-tier No. 5, though. On a decade of scratchy Test scores and a middling Shield rating, Kingsmead was an outlier, and Australia should pick him at St George's Park as a batter in the form of his life keeping the seat warm while they go on looking for their long-term No. 5.