An Oddsworth Opinion
The number from Tuesday that frames West Indies' five-match problem
The story
ESPNcricinfo asks whether West Indies can interrupt India's run of home T20I wins, noting that India have won 42 and lost only nine at home since the last time they lost two consecutive home T20Is.
ESPNcricinfo · 8 October at 11:39 BSTCan West Indies find a way to halt India's home juggernaut?Read the full storyOn Tuesday West Indies were bowled out for 171 in 19.1 overs, and India knocked the runs off two wickets down in 14.4 overs. That is the shape of the problem ESPNcricinfo sets out: India have won 42 and lost nine at home since they last dropped two home T20Is in a row, and West Indies' hitting is supposed to be the thing that breaks the pattern. Our ratings put the gap in terms of whole sides. India top our men's T20 team list, worth about 41 runs a match more than an average side, while West Indies sit fourth of the ten, worth about 18. So the hitting is only part of what Friday weighs.
A juggernaut with a wobble
Any reading of India as unbeatable needs tempering with their recent run. Their last ten T20Is opened with three straight defeats to England in July, and they have won seven on the trot since, including a two-run win over Japan in September, a measure of how narrow even this side can run things on an off night. India can be run close. The trouble for West Indies is that a close call is a different thing from the two-wicket chase they allowed on Tuesday.
- LEnglandLost by 125 runs v England, 2026-07-07
- LEnglandLost by 9 wickets v England, 2026-07-09
- LEnglandLost by 56 runs v England, 2026-07-11
- WZimbabweWon by 7 wickets v Zimbabwe, 2026-07-23
- WZimbabweWon by 90 runs v Zimbabwe, 2026-07-25
- WZimbabweWon by 35 runs v Zimbabwe, 2026-07-26
- WJapanWon by 2 runs v Japan, 2026-09-22
- WSri LankaWon by 124 runs v Sri Lanka, 2026-10-01
- WPakistanWon by 19 runs v Pakistan, 2026-10-03
- WWest IndiesWon by 8 wickets v West Indies, 2026-10-06
What a one-in-five chance looks like
Our call for Friday gives West Indies a 22% chance, down from the 27% we gave them before Tuesday's game. The salient detail is how the two defeats to India this year have gone. In March India won by five wickets, and on Tuesday by eight, which means both times West Indies set a total and India chased it with wickets to spare. That is the pattern of a side whose batting does its job and whose bowling cannot then protect the result.
Friday 9 October 2026, 7:00pm IST
The chase is the whole difference
West Indies' 171 is a total a top-four side can defend against most opponents, and India reached it in 14.4 overs. The bowling is the problem. Two wickets in a chase of that size is the mark of an attack that never got at India's top order, so the hitting only set up a target India reached early. The corollary is that Friday turns on the first wickets of India's reply, whatever West Indies make. Get into India's middle order with the target still distant and the batting becomes a weapon; take two wickets again and the series will follow the shape of Tuesday.