Senuran Muthusamy
11 wkts, econ 7.31 in the last 10. Rated +1.4 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.4 runs better than an average bowler. He has 11 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 7.31, and 48 career T20 wickets at 7.07.
The sides
| Measure | Warriors | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 451T20s between the XI | 1,177T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 24.5T20 batting | 25.5T20 batting |
When Warriors bat
−0.05 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.46MiddleOvers 7–15+0.29DeathOvers 16–20−0.15
When Lions bat
+0.01 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.16MiddleOvers 7–15−0.03DeathOvers 16–20+0.29
Warriors bat first
First innings152
Lions chase in17.3 overs
64%Lions win
36%Warriors win
Lions bat first
First innings161
Warriors short by33 runs
64%Lions win
37%Warriors win
Lions favoured by 2 runs on bowling at Gqeberha
Lions are favoured, with a 64% win chance, because their bowling is about 3 runs better than the Warriors' and that outweighs a batting edge of about 1 run for the home side. On paper the gap is only about 2 runs, so this is close, but the Lions' attack gives them the edge.
The par score here is 159, and the Lions project 161 batting first against the Warriors' 152. Teams batting first have won 11 of the last 19 here, and 68% of first-innings totals between 150 and 169 have been defended. The sharpest angle is the Lions' top order: Quinton de Kock has 319 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 163, while the Warriors' top three all rate below average.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15021%8 of 38
150–16968%23 of 34
170–18975%9 of 12
190–209100%2 of 2
210+100%3 of 3
The case for Warriors
- Batting edge of about 1 run, with Matthew Breetzke rated 0.9 runs better than an average middle-order batter and Jordan Hermann 0.4 runs better than an average opener.
- Senuran Muthusamy is rated 1.4 runs better than an average bowler and has 11 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 7.31.
Bowling standout
The case for Lions
- Bowling edge of about 3 runs, led by Bjorn Fortuin (rated 1.9 runs better than average) and Gerald Coetzee (0.2 runs better).
- Quinton de Kock is rated 2.7 runs better than an average batter and has 319 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 163.
Batting standouts
Quinton de Kock
319 runs, SR 163, 22 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.7 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 2.7 runs better than an average batter. He has 319 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 163, with 22 sixes, and 607 runs in 22 innings at this ground.
Reeza Hendricks
302 runs, SR 136, 12 sixes in the last 10. Rated +1.1 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 1.1 runs better than an average opener. He has 302 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 136, with 12 sixes, and 564 runs in 17 innings at this ground.
Bowling standout
Bjorn Fortuin
16 wkts, econ 6.58 in the last 10. Rated +1.9 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.9 runs better than an average bowler. He has 16 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 6.58, and 138 career T20 wickets at 6.91.
Batting weakness
Zubayr Hamza
247 runs, SR 107, 2 sixes in the last 10. Rated −4.9 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.9 runs worse than an average opener. He has 247 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 107, and his last match was in October 2024.
Bowling weakness
Nqaba Peter
5 wkts, econ 8.97 in the last 10. Rated −3.4 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.4 runs worse than an average bowler on limited data. He has 5 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 8.97.