David Warner
515 runs, SR 149, 15 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the bat.
515 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 149.3, with 15 sixes. Rated 3.8 runs better than an average batter in his slot.
The sides
| Measure | Thunder | Sixers |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,773T20s between the XI | 1,473T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 23.7T20 batting | 26.4T20 batting |
When Thunder bat
−0.29 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.40MiddleOvers 7–15−0.43DeathOvers 16–20+0.11
When Sixers bat
+0.15 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.53MiddleOvers 7–15−0.07DeathOvers 16–20+0.08
Thunder bat first
First innings173
Sixers chase in17.5 overs
68%Sixers win
32%Thunder win
Sixers bat first
First innings177
Thunder short by34 runs
63%Sixers win
37%Thunder win
Sixers favoured by about 10 runs, mostly through the bat
Sydney Sixers are favoured, about 10 runs stronger on paper than Sydney Thunder, and the edge is mostly with the bat: 6.4 runs of the gap in batting, 3.9 in bowling. Their XI totals 17.3 runs better than average against Thunder's 7, and the win chances sit at 66% to 34%. The projected first innings says the same in plain terms: Sixers 177, Thunder 173, around a par score of 174.
Steve Smith is the standout: 285 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 161, and rated 4.2 runs better than an average batter in his slot. Tim Seifert sits alongside him with 447 runs in his last 10 at 163.7, rated 3.8 better than average. Thunder's batting is thinner at the top, where Sam Konstas is rated 2 runs worse than an average opener after 160 runs in his last 10 at 106.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15020%2 of 10
150–16950%6 of 12
170–18983%5 of 6
190–20975%3 of 4
210+No games
The case for Thunder
- Batting totals 6.9 runs better than average, with Warner rated 3.8 runs better than an average batter in his slot.
- Chris Green is rated 2.5 runs better than an average bowler over his expected overs, and Daniel Sams 1.3 better.
- Green took 6 wickets at 7.72 an over in his last 10 T20 matches, and Sams 15 at 7.38.
Batting standout
Bowling standout
Chris Green
6 wkts, econ 7.72 in the last 10. Rated +2.5 runs a game with the ball.
6 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 7.72, and rated 2.5 runs better than an average bowler over his expected overs.
Bowling weaknesses
Nathan McAndrew
15 wkts, econ 10.63 in the last 10. Rated −1.6 runs a game with the ball.
15 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches but at an economy of 10.63, and rated 1.6 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs.
Ryan Hadley
2 wkts, econ 12.79 in the last 4. Rated −3.5 runs a game with the ball.
2 wickets in his last four BBL matches at an economy of 12.79. Rated on limited data, and 3.5 runs worse than an average bowler over his expected overs.
The case for Sixers
- Batting totals 13.3 runs better than average, led by Smith and Seifert at the top.
- Bowling totals 4 runs better than average, with Ben Dwarshuis rated 2.4 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
- Smith and Seifert both come in off recent windows of 285 and 447 runs at strike rates above 160.
Batting standouts
Steve Smith
285 runs, SR 161, 17 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.2 runs a game with the bat.
285 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 161, with 17 sixes. Rated 4.2 runs better than an average batter in his slot.
Tim Seifert
447 runs, SR 164, 21 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the bat.
447 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 163.7, with 21 sixes. Rated 3.8 runs better than an average opener.