Finn Allen
226 runs, SR 150, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +6.5 runs a game with the bat.
226 runs at a strike rate of 150 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 6.5 runs better than an average batter in his slot.
The sides
| Measure | Stars | Heat |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,935T20s between the XI | 1,119T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 25.5T20 batting | 24.1T20 batting |
When Stars bat
+0.46 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.18MiddleOvers 7–15+0.69DeathOvers 16–20+0.37
When Heat bat
−0.11 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.53MiddleOvers 7–15+0.06DeathOvers 16–20+0.10
Stars bat first
First innings182
Heat chase in18.2 overs
50%Heat win
50%Stars win
Heat bat first
First innings174
Stars chase in18.1 overs
55%Stars win
45%Heat win
Too close to call, with Melbourne Stars stronger on paper
This is too close to call: Melbourne Stars hold 52% of the win chance to Brisbane Heat's 48%. The Stars are the stronger side on paper, about 14 runs clear, and the edge comes from both batting and bowling. Their XI totals 25 runs versus average, the Heat 11.1, with the batting gap 7.3 runs and the bowling gap 6.5. The projected first innings is 182 for the Stars batting first and 174 for the Heat, against a par score of 179.
Finn Allen is the standout: 226 runs at a strike rate of 150 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 6.5 runs better than an average batter in his slot. The Stars' top order carries the batting edge, and Allen's recent scoring rate sits above the rest of the top six.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 150No games
150–169No games
170–189100%1 of 1
190–209No games
210+100%1 of 1
The case for Stars
- Batting totals 18.7 runs versus average, 7.3 runs clear of the Heat's batting.
- Bowling totals 6.2 runs versus average, 6.5 runs clear of the Heat's bowling.
- Finn Allen and Sam Harper both scored at above 149 per 100 balls in their last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standouts
Sam Harper
385 runs, SR 160, 18 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.6 runs a game with the bat.
385 runs at a strike rate of 159.8 in his last 10 T20 matches, all in the LPL, and rated 2.6 runs better than an average batter.
Marcus Stoinis
259 runs, SR 143, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.2 runs a game with the bat.
259 runs at a strike rate of 143.1 and 16 wickets at 8.63 in his last 10 T20 matches, rated 3.2 runs better with the bat and 1.3 with the ball.
Bowling standout
Peter Siddle
16 wkts, econ 8.59 in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the ball.
16 wickets at an economy of 8.59 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
The case for Heat
- Matthew Renshaw is rated 3.4 runs better than an average batter and scored 270 runs in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Xavier Bartlett is rated 1 run better than an average bowler over four overs, with 11 wickets at 7.82 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Tom Curran took 13 wickets at 7.8 in his last 10 T20 matches and is rated 1.7 runs better with the bat.
Bowling weaknesses
Jack Wildermuth
10 wkts, econ 9.92 in the last 10. Rated −1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.8 runs worse than an average bowler over his expected three overs, on limited data, with an economy of 9.92 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Michael Neser
13 wkts, econ 9.85 in the last 10. Rated −0.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 0.8 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs, with an economy of 9.85 in his last 10 T20 matches.