Finn Allen
226 runs, SR 150, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +6.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 6.5 runs better than an average batter, the biggest batting impact in either XI. He has 226 runs at a strike rate of 149.7 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The sides
| Measure | Stars | Sixers |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,935T20s between the XI | 1,473T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 25.5T20 batting | 26.4T20 batting |
When Stars bat
+0.33 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.07MiddleOvers 7–15+0.57DeathOvers 16–20+0.39
When Sixers bat
−0.04 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.15MiddleOvers 7–15−0.17DeathOvers 16–20−0.03
Stars bat first
First innings178
Sixers chase in17.4 overs
58%Sixers win
42%Stars win
Sixers bat first
First innings171
Stars short by31 runs
53%Sixers win
47%Stars win
Sixers favoured despite Stars being stronger on paper
Sydney Sixers are the call at 56%, even though Melbourne Stars are the stronger side on paper by about 8 runs. The Stars' advantage is mostly batting, about 5 runs, with a further 2 runs from bowling, and their projected 178 is the higher of the two first-innings totals against a par of 173. The Sixers' case rests on the match situation rather than the strength totals: chasers have won 9 of the last 12 here, and the side batting second has the better of the ground's recent record.
Melbourne Stars' top order averages 28 against left-arm finger spin since 2023, a third below their 42 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth. Sydney Sixers have one left-arm finger spinner in their XI, and the gap between the Stars' numbers against that type and against everything else is the most telling point in the match.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15019%8 of 42
150–16925%5 of 20
170–18967%14 of 21
190–209100%3 of 3
210+100%3 of 3
The case for Stars
- Batting strength of 18.7 runs above average, the larger of the two batting totals, led by Finn Allen's 6.5-run rating.
- Bowling strength of 6.2 runs above average, with Peter Siddle rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
- A projected 178 batting first, the higher of the two first-innings totals and above the par score of 173.
Batting standouts
Marcus Stoinis
259 runs, SR 143, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.2 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.2 runs better than an average batter and 1.3 runs better than an average bowler. He has 259 runs at 143.1 and 16 wickets at 8.63 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling standout
Peter Siddle
16 wkts, econ 8.59 in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, the strongest bowling rating in the match. He took 16 wickets at 8.59 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for Sixers
- Chasers have won 9 of the last 12 games here, and the side batting second has the better of the ground's recent record.
- Tim Seifert has 447 runs at 163.7 in his last 10 T20 matches, and Steve Smith adds a 4.2-run batting rating.
- Ben Dwarshuis is rated 2.4 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, with 17 wickets at 8.47 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Tim Seifert
447 runs, SR 164, 21 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.8 runs better than an average opener. He has 447 runs at a strike rate of 163.7, with 21 sixes, in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling standout
Ben Dwarshuis
17 wkts, econ 8.47 in the last 10. Rated +2.4 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.4 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He took 17 wickets at 8.47 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling weakness
Fergus O'Neill
7 wkts, econ 7.84 in the last 10. Rated −1.7 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.7 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs on limited data. He took 7 wickets at 7.84 in his last 10 T20 matches, the last of them in December 2025.