Matchups
Why captains should bowl more off-spin at left-handers
A wicket falls and a left-hander walks out. Before he has finished taking guard, the captain has thrown the ball to his off-spinner, who crosses to bowl round the wicket while midwicket wanders a few yards squarer. This is one of the oldest reflexes in cricket, and like most reflexes it gets used far more often than it gets checked.
In men’s T20s the reflex is sound, with an off-spinner saving 10 runs per 100 balls against left-handers, about 0.6 runs an over, beyond whatever the average bowler gains against them. That is a small sum for a single over, and it keeps adding up every time a left-hander takes guard against him.
T20 is also the format where that edge is at its smallest, which gives captains in the longer game even more reason to trust the old habit. It gives T20 captains a harder question about exactly which overs to hand him, because in twenty overs the choice is shaped by the pair at the crease, the overs each bowler has left and whoever the side has picked, and the off-spinner on hand is not always a front-line bowler.
Is off-spin effective against left-handed batters in Tests?
Yes, and the longer the game, the more it is worth, with no sign of it fading in the most recent seasons. In ODIs an off-spinner saves 14 against left-handers, and in Tests and first-class cricket he saves 15. The format changes how the runs are saved. In T20s almost all of the saving comes as fewer runs scored, while in ODIs and the first-class game it splits roughly evenly between fewer runs and more wickets, so in the longer formats the off-spinner is getting left-handers out as well as keeping them quiet.
That split matters most in Tests, where a captain needs wickets more than he needs dot balls, and an off-spinner bowling at a left-hander gives him a fair share of both.
The women’s game says the same thing, only louder. Off-spinners in women’s T20s save 12 against left-handers, more than the 10 they save in men’s T20s, which points to something built into the way the ball turns rather than the habits of one competition or one generation of batters.
Why do left-arm spinners struggle against left-handers?
Because the left-arm spinner’s stock ball turns into the left-hander, towards his pads and into the arc where he likes to hit. In men’s T20s left-arm orthodox spinners are 19 runs worse against left-handers, about 1.1 runs an over, which is the biggest gap against left-handers of any type of spinner in either direction.
The longer formats soften the damage without curing it, with left-arm spinners 9 runs worse against left-handers in ODIs and 12 worse in Tests and first-class cricket. Women’s T20s tell the same story, with left-arm spinners 9 runs worse there too. For the left-hander the ball arrives where he wants it, turning the way he wants it to turn, and a bowler whose stock delivery does the batter’s work for him has very little to fall back on.
Set beside each other, the two finger spinners are not equal halves of the same matchup. In T20s the left-arm spinner’s loss against left-handers, 19 runs worse, is almost twice the off-spinner’s gain of 10, so the larger share of the runs at stake sits in the overs a left-arm spinner bowls to a left-hander.
Are left-handed batters weak against spin?
No. Left-handers show no general weakness against spin, and what troubles them is the ball turning away from the bat. Leg-spinners turn the ball into the left-hander and do a little worse against him than against right-handers, while left-arm wrist-spinners turn it away from him and do better. Two kinds of wrist-spinner end up on opposite sides of the line, and the only thing separating them is which way the ball turns, the same thing that separates the off-spinner from the left-arm spinner.
Why do off-spinners go round the wicket to left-handers?
Because the off-spinner’s ball turns away from the left-hander whichever side of the wicket he bowls from, and round the wicket is the side where that turn still threatens the stumps. From round the wicket the ball starts in line with the stumps and turns away, so the left-hander has to play at it, and bowled and lbw both stay in play. From over the wicket the ball is already angled across him before it pitches, and the turn takes it further away outside off stump, where he can leave it. So off-spinners go round the wicket for 85% of their balls to left-handers in T20s, and left-arm spinners make the same move against right-handers.
Off-spinners also pitch the ball about 10cm fuller to left-handers than to right-handers. That change of length makes no difference to how they fare, and the same goes for every other kind of spinner.
Do captains bowl off-spinners at left-handers enough?
Not as often as they could, though they already lean the right way: in men’s T20s off-spinners bowl 37% of their balls to left-handers, against 28% for the average bowler. A captain rarely picks his spinner for the batter on strike alone, because strike rotation means the bowler will meet both batters, so the real choice is made for the pair at the crease. He also works within each bowler’s fixed quota of overs, where holding back a good left-arm spinner while left-handers bat can leave his overs unbowled, and the off-spinner on hand may be a part-timer rather than a front-line bowler.
Between his front-line off-spinner and his front-line left-arm spinner, the difference lies in how each copes with the batter his stock ball turns towards. The off-spinner still saves runs against right-handers, so he does some good against everybody and a lot of good against left-handers. The left-arm spinner is the better of the two against right-handers, but against a left-hander he is 8 runs per 100 balls worse than par, which makes him the riskier bowler to throw the ball to whenever a left-hander might end up on strike.
Put the two batters together and the choice sorts itself out at either end. With two left-handers in, the off-spinner is the clear pick, and with two right-handers in, the left-arm spinner is. The wrong call against two left-handers costs 19 runs, while the wrong call against two right-handers costs only 5, because the off-spinner gives up less to right-handers than the left-arm spinner gives up to left-handers. On grounds that help spin, the off-spinner’s edge over the left-arm spinner is about a third bigger. Captains already lean this way, handing off-spinners far more of the overs when two left-handers are in and doing the reverse with two right-handers. Two left-handers bat together only now and then in the middle overs, but when they do, the left-arm spinner is the dearest mistake a captain can make with his spinners.
Which spinner should bowl to a left-right batting pair?
More often than now, the front-line off-spinner. One of each is far more common than two left-handers, at 45% of the overs from the 7th to the 16th in men’s T20s, and with strike rotation most of a left-hander’s balls come in these overs. With a mixed pair the off-spinner saves runs against both batters, a lot against the left-hander and a little against the right-hander, while the left-arm spinner does better than him against the right-hander but leaks runs to the left-hander. Put together, a front-line off-spinner saves 9 runs with one of each in, against 2 for a front-line left-arm spinner. These are the overs that come round most often, so a captain who has both spinners to choose from should lean towards the off-spinner here.
With a mixed pair, though, the quality of the bowler matters a great deal, every bit as much as which way he turns it. Among front-line off-spinners the better quarter save about 7 runs more than the worse quarter, and among front-line left-arm spinners the gap is about 4, close to the gap between the two types with one of each in. A strong left-arm spinner can be as good a choice here as an ordinary off-spinner, so the captain should go to his better front-line spinner, with off-spin slightly ahead when the two are evenly matched. With two left-handers in, the gap between the types dwarfs the gap between a good bowler and an ordinary one, and the type decides. That is why a part-time off-spinner earns the ball only against two left-handers, while with one of each the captain is better off with his front-line left-arm spinner than with a part-timer.
The pair changes with every wicket, so the choice never stays settled for long. In T20s and ODIs each bowler also has a fixed quota of overs. A captain who spends his off-spinner’s overs on a mixed pair may have none left when two left-handers come together. So he looks at who is still to come in, and sometimes keeps a spinner’s overs back for a pair that suits him. Tests have no quota, so that sum never arises there. In ODIs and Tests the two front-line spinners come out about level with one of each in, and the off-spinner’s real gain comes with two left-handers.
Should captains bowl more off-spin at left-handers?
Yes, captains should bowl more off-spin at left-handers, though it is no simple switch. With two left-handers in, a captain should bowl off-spin whoever bowls it, front-line or part-time. With one of each, he should turn to his better front-line spinner, and to the off-spinner when the two are close. The left-arm spinner earns his overs when two right-handers are in, which is about half the middle overs in T20s and plenty of work for him.
Each of those calls has to be weighed against how good his two spinners are, and in T20s and ODIs against the overs each has left for the pairs still to come. Against two left-handers, though, the left-arm spinner is the costliest call a captain can make.