Oddsworth

Bangladesh v West Indies, 1st Test: Bangladesh 49%

Bangladesh 49%. West Indies 33%. Draw 18%.

Bangladesh v West Indies Test series 2026, 1st Test

Wednesday 28 October 2026, 9:30am GMT+6Sher-e-Bangla National Cricket Stadium, DhakaDraw 18%

Prediction locks 28th October, 03:00 UTC

The sides

MeasureBangladeshWest Indies
Rating135810th of 1113909th of 11
Home advantage+110Rating points–Touring
XI caps489Tests between the XI346Tests between the XI
Top-seven average34.4Test batting in Bangladesh28.1Test batting in Bangladesh
Bowling average36.4Five main bowlers, Tests32.0Five main bowlers, Tests

When Bangladesh bat

−0.16 an over
New ballOvers 1–20−0.24Old ballOvers 21–80−0.08Second new ballOvers 81 on−0.33

When West Indies bat

−0.28 an over
New ballOvers 1–20−0.23Old ballOvers 21–80−0.26Second new ballOvers 81 on−0.46

First innings

343Bangladesh bat first
302West Indies bat first
276Par
292Average here since 2019, 10 innings
610Highest here, India 2007

Bangladesh favoured at home with a 53-run XI edge

Bangladesh are favoured in Dhaka, with a 49 per cent win share to West Indies' 33 and the draw at 18. The gap is mostly in the XIs: Bangladesh's rates 53.3 runs a match above an average Full Member side, West Indies' 24.3, and home advantage sits alongside it. The projections follow: 343 for Bangladesh batting first, 302 for West Indies, against a par of 276 and a ground average of 292 since 2019.

Bangladesh's top seven average 55.8 against off-spin since 2023, 49 per cent above their 37.4 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens improve by 23 per cent. West Indies' off-spin in this match belongs to Roston Chase, in our predicted XI, whose 11 wickets have cost 74 runs apiece.

What total is safe?

Tests in Bangladesh since 2019

First inningsDefended
Under 2500%0 of 6
250–34963%5 of 8
350–44967%4 of 6
450+100%3 of 3

The case for Bangladesh

  • The XI rates 53.3 runs a match above an average Full Member side, against West Indies' 24.3, and Bangladesh play at home.
  • Taijul Islam has 96 wickets at 28.3 and Mehidy Hasan Miraz 78 at 28.2 in Tests since 2023, with Hasan Mahmud's 51 at 29.3 alongside them.
  • Najmul Hossain Shanto made 916 runs and Mushfiqur Rahim 902 in their last 10 matches, with Litton Das back in the squad after an injury absence.

Batting standout

Bowling standout

Taijul Islam

Taijul Islam

45 wickets in the last 10 Tests. Career average 30.8.

The case for West Indies

  • The pace attack is the deeper of the two: Kemar Roach 39 wickets at 21.3, Shamar Joseph 64 at 24.2 and Jayden Seales 73 at 26.7 in Tests since 2023.
  • Jomel Warrican's left-arm finger spin has brought 38 wickets at 21.9, the best rate among the frontline spinners on either side.
  • Justin Greaves has 730 runs in his last 10 matches to go with 20 wickets, a second front alongside the specialist bowlers.

Batting standout

Bowling standout

Shamar Joseph

Shamar Joseph

47 wickets in the last 10 Tests. Career average 24.2.

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