Temba Bavuma
895 runs in the last 10 Tests. Career average 38.8.
The sides
| Measure | South Africa | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 16332nd of 11 | 17011st of 11 |
| Home advantage | +110Rating points | –Touring |
| XI caps | 307Tests between the XI | 623Tests between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 31.4Test batting in South Africa | 35.3Test batting in South Africa |
| Bowling average | 25.8Five main bowlers, Tests | 25.6Five main bowlers, Tests |
When South Africa bat
−0.28 an overNew ballOvers 1–20−0.37Old ballOvers 21–80−0.29Second new ballOvers 81 on−0.08
When Australia bat
−0.21 an overNew ballOvers 1–20−0.24Old ballOvers 21–80−0.28Second new ballOvers 81 on+0.09
First innings
335South Africa bat first
313Australia bat first
278Par
268Average here since 2019, 5 innings
629Highest here, England 2016
South Africa favoured; batting gives them the edge over Australia
South Africa are favoured to win the third Test at Newlands, with a 44 per cent chance to Australia's 38 per cent and an 18 per cent draw. Their XI rates 199.9 runs a match above an average Full Member side, just ahead of Australia's 194.1, and the units split: South Africa's batting rates 108.9 to Australia's 85.7, while Australia's bowling rates 108.4 to South Africa's 91. The projected first innings are 335 for South Africa and 313 for Australia.
Australia's top seven average 19.3 against left-arm pace since 2023, 47 per cent below their 36.6 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by 22 per cent; Marco Jansen, in our predicted XI, gives South Africa that option.
What total is safe?
Tests in South Africa since 2019
First inningsDefended
Under 25010%1 of 10
250–349100%6 of 6
350–449100%3 of 3
450+100%3 of 3
The case for South Africa
- South Africa's XI rates 199.9 runs a match above an average Full Member side, with batting at 108.9; Australia's XI rates 194.1.
- South Africa's top seven average 40.1 against right-arm pace since 2023, against a 31.8 benchmark, and Temba Bavuma has 895 recent runs.
- Marco Jansen, in our predicted XI, offers left-arm pace; Australia's top seven average 19.3 against it since 2023, 47 per cent below their 36.6 against all bowling.
Batting standout
Bowling standout
Marco Jansen
50 wickets in the last 10 Tests. Career average 20.8.
The case for Australia
- Australia's bowling rates 108.4 runs a match above an average Full Member side to South Africa's 91, with Scott Boland's 52 recent wickets and Pat Cummins's 37.
- Australia's top seven average 71.9 against off-spin since 2023, 96 per cent above their 36.6 against all bowling.
- Travis Head has 881 recent runs and Steve Smith 653, with Head averaging 42.93 and Smith 55.29.
Batting standout
Travis Head
881 runs in the last 10 Tests. Career average 42.9.
Bowling standout
Mitchell Starc
56 wickets in the last 10 Tests. Career average 26.2.