Where did Australia's ODI tour really go wrong?

Australia were supposed to come home from Zimbabwe and South Africa with a clearer World Cup plan, and the prevailing view is that they have collected more problems instead. Our ratings give Australia a 49% chance of beating an average Full Member side on neutral ground in men's ODIs, despite their third place in the ICC rankings.

The results deserve scrutiny, but treating every defeat as a departure from Australia's usual standards lets their earlier cricket off lightly. They had already lost to Pakistan and Bangladesh before arriving in Zimbabwe.

The batting charge

Kingsmead supplies the strongest case against the batting. South Africa made 297/8 and Australia were bowled out for 230. A chase ending that far short gives the batters a clear share of responsibility; the target alone cannot explain away the result.

Australia's 333 all out at The Wanderers was still insufficient against South Africa's 365/9. The attack had left the batting with a much more demanding assignment, and blaming the batters for both defeats obscures the difference between failing in a chase and being asked to chase too much.

By following that substantial innings with 322/9 and victory at JB Marks Oval, Australia's batters had answered Kingsmead with consecutive scores that gave their side something to work with. They deserve credit for that response. Calling them the persistent weakness of the South Africa leg is unfair.

The attack's responsibility

The bowling warrants particular attention because South Africa's totals set the terms of the opening defeats. At The Wanderers especially, Australia's batters were being asked to rescue an expensive innings in the field. Their response strengthens the case for putting that loss primarily on the attack.

The final victory matters, too: Australia beat a side our pre-match forecast had given a 77% chance of winning.

The tour leaves specific jobs for Australia. The batting must prevent another Kingsmead collapse, while the bowling must stop making a Wanderers-sized chase necessary. The attack deserves the sharper scrutiny after South Africa.