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How far does India’s run against Pakistan reach?

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ESPNcricinfo casts India as favourites for the Asian Games final after six successive T20I wins over Pakistan. India’s stronger team rating supports that view, while recent results show how Pakistan might make the final competitive.

ESPNcricinfo · 2 October at 10:33 BSTAsian Games final: India favourites to strike gold against PakistanRead the full story

India take six successive men’s T20I wins over Pakistan into the Asian Games final, and ESPNcricinfo expects them to make it seven. Our ratings put India first among ten men’s T20 teams, worth 40.05 runs a match more than an average side. Pakistan are sixth, worth 16.59 runs a match more than an average side. India’s standing gives the report’s expectation weight beyond the results in this fixture.

Six wins tell us who has controlled these recent meetings. Pakistan’s task in the final is clear: they have to overturn both that pattern and India’s stronger rating. A close contest would give them a chance to make those advantages matter less.

Our men's T20 team ratingsRuns a match better than an average side
  1. 1. India+40.0
  2. 2. Australia+35.1
  3. 3. England+33.6
  4. 4. Sri Lanka+20.1
  5. 5. West Indies+18.1
  6. 6. Pakistan+16.6
  7. 7. New Zealand+16.2
  8. 8. South Africa+15.0
  9. 9. Bangladesh+3.6
  10. 10. Spain+2.9

India’s recent matches offer an opening

India’s results elsewhere have been less imposing than their run against Pakistan. They lost to England by 125 runs in July, then beat Zimbabwe by seven wickets later that month. Their September win over Japan came by two runs. That last margin matters because India had to finish a close match against a side they defeated.

None of those results takes a win away from India’s sequence against Pakistan. They do show the danger of treating that sequence as a description of every match India play. Pakistan need to make this final resemble the narrow finish against Japan rather than their own most recent meeting with India.

India's last 10 T20sOldest first
  1. LIrelandLost by 1 runs v Ireland, 2026-06-28
  2. NREnglandNo result v England, 2026-07-01
  3. LEnglandLost by 4 wickets v England, 2026-07-04
  4. LEnglandLost by 125 runs v England, 2026-07-07
  5. LEnglandLost by 9 wickets v England, 2026-07-09
  6. LEnglandLost by 56 runs v England, 2026-07-11
  7. WZimbabweWon by 7 wickets v Zimbabwe, 2026-07-23
  8. WZimbabweWon by 90 runs v Zimbabwe, 2026-07-25
  9. WZimbabweWon by 35 runs v Zimbabwe, 2026-07-26
  10. WJapanWon by 2 runs v Japan, 2026-09-22

Pakistan have a result to answer

That meeting ended in a 61-run defeat for Pakistan in February. It is a substantial reason to favour India, especially alongside the team ratings. Pakistan have also beaten Australia by 111 runs and Sri Lanka by five runs this year. Those wins show they can both put distance between themselves and an opponent and get through a tight finish.

The Sri Lanka result is the more useful guide to Pakistan’s task in the final. India got past Japan by two runs; Pakistan got past Sri Lanka by five. Close wins against different opponents cannot settle what happens when these sides meet, but Pakistan have shown they can finish one. India should start as favourites for gold. Pakistan’s route is to keep them within reach long enough to test that finish again.

Pakistan's last 10 T20sOldest first
  1. LSri LankaLost by 14 runs v Sri Lanka, 2026-01-11
  2. WAustraliaWon by 22 runs v Australia, 2026-01-29
  3. WAustraliaWon by 90 runs v Australia, 2026-01-31
  4. WAustraliaWon by 111 runs v Australia, 2026-02-01
  5. WNetherlandsWon by 3 wickets v Netherlands, 2026-02-07
  6. WUnited States of AmericaWon by 32 runs v United States of America, 2026-02-10
  7. LIndiaLost by 61 runs v India, 2026-02-15
  8. WNamibiaWon by 102 runs v Namibia, 2026-02-18
  9. LEnglandLost by 2 wickets v England, 2026-02-24
  10. WSri LankaWon by 5 runs v Sri Lanka, 2026-02-28

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