Which of Herschelle Gibbs' three changes would actually help South Africa?

Herschelle Gibbs has three changes for Gqeberha, and the first needs the least argument. Kagiso Rabada is our seventh-rated Test bowler, worth 17 runs a match more than an average bowler, and Gibbs wants him back in a side that has just lost at Kingsmead by 214 runs.

Rabada's case is the easy one

Over the last two years in men's Tests he has taken 41 wickets at a bowling average of 21.71, against 28.97 for every bowler in that period. Against Australia in June 2025 he took nine wickets in the match and South Africa won by five wickets.

That is the bowler Gibbs wants back: one who has already beaten this opposition once and improves the attack the day he walks in.

Should Kyle Verreynne be dropped?

Here the numbers give Gibbs less than he thinks. Verreynne averages 31.17 in Tests over the last two years, a shade under the 32.89 that top-seven batters have managed, and our ratings put him 51st of 92 Test batters, nearly four runs a match worse than an average one.

What irritates is the shape of it. Three hundreds in two years and not one fifty, and the last of those hundreds came against Pakistan in January 2025. Since then his best is 45 against India, and he made 13 and 1 at Kingsmead. Still, a batter sitting almost on the top-seven average is hardly the weak link in this order.

Rickelton down the order, or Rickelton out?

This is where Gibbs has it backwards. Ryan Rickelton averages 39.72 in Tests over the last two years, the better figure of the two batters, but that average has been living off one innings, the 259 against Pakistan in January 2025.

Our ratings see through the big score and put him 63rd of 92 Test batters, below Verreynne. Moving Rickelton changes where he bats, when the real question is whether he should bat at all.

Our forecast makes South Africa 43% to win the second Test, with Australia at 41%, and Rabada's return does more for that chance than any reshuffle of the batting. Put him on the team sheet, keep Verreynne, and if a batting place is up for discussion, the ratings point at the man Gibbs wants to move rather than the one he wants to drop.