David Warner
515 runs, SR 149, 15 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.8 runs better than an average batter. He has 515 runs at a strike rate of 149.3 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 15 sixes.
The sides
| Measure | Thunder | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,773T20s between the XI | 1,935T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 23.7T20 batting | 25.5T20 batting |
When Thunder bat
−0.37 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.66MiddleOvers 7–15−0.41DeathOvers 16–20+0.04
When Stars bat
+0.44 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.06MiddleOvers 7–15+0.69DeathOvers 16–20+0.43
Thunder bat first
First innings169
Stars chase in17.4 overs
60%Stars win
40%Thunder win
Stars bat first
First innings181
Thunder short by35 runs
54%Stars win
46%Thunder win
Melbourne Stars favoured by about 18 runs on paper
Melbourne Stars are favoured, with a 57% win chance against Sydney Thunder's 43%. The edge is about 18 runs on paper, mostly from batting: Stars' projected XI totals 25 runs above average against Thunder's 7, with an 11.8-run batting edge and a 6.1-run bowling edge. Stars' batting strength shows in the projected first-innings totals: 181 if they bat first, against 169 for Thunder, around a par score of 175.
Thunder's top seven average 28 against left-arm finger spin since 2023, a third below their 42 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth. Stars have no left-arm finger spinner in our XI, but Todd Murphy, a right-arm off-spinner outside it, could come in as a change from the last match.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 1500%0 of 9
150–16938%3 of 8
170–18950%3 of 6
190–209100%3 of 3
210+100%1 of 1
The case for Thunder
- David Warner is rated 3.8 runs better than an average batter, with 515 runs at a strike rate of 149.3 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Chris Green is rated 2.5 runs better than an average bowler and 1.7 runs better than an average batter.
- Projected first-innings total of 169 when batting first, close to the recent average here of 163.
Batting standout
Bowling weaknesses
Nathan McAndrew
15 wkts, econ 10.63 in the last 10. Rated −1.6 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.6 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. He has 15 wickets at an economy of 10.63 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Ryan Hadley
2 wkts, econ 12.79 in the last 4. Rated −3.5 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.5 runs worse than an average bowler over three overs, on limited data. He has 2 wickets at an economy of 12.79 in his last 4 T20 matches.
The case for Stars
- Batting strength of 18.7 runs above average, led by Finn Allen at 6.5 runs better than an average batter.
- Bowling strength of 6.2 runs above average, with Peter Siddle rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
- Projected first-innings total of 181 when batting first, against a par score of 175.
Batting standouts
Finn Allen
226 runs, SR 150, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +6.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 6.5 runs better than an average batter, the biggest batting impact in either XI. He has 226 runs at a strike rate of 149.7 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 10 sixes.
Marcus Stoinis
259 runs, SR 143, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.2 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.2 runs better than an average batter and 1.3 runs better than an average bowler. He has 259 runs at a strike rate of 143.1 and 16 wickets at 8.63 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling standout
Peter Siddle
16 wkts, econ 8.59 in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 16 wickets at an economy of 8.59 in his last 10 T20 matches.