Oddsworth

Dubai Capitals v Desert Vipers: too close to call

Capitals 51%. Vipers 49%.

ILT20|5, match 21

Sunday 6 December 2026, 6:30pm GMT+4Dubai International Cricket Stadium, Dubai

Prediction locks 6th December, 14:00 UTCWhen we've said 50–60%, the favourite won 850 of 1541

The sides

MeasureCapitalsVipers
XI caps2,772T20s between the XI2,149T20s between the XI
Top-seven average26.6T20 batting29.3T20 batting

When Capitals bat

+0.17 an over
PowerplayOvers 1–6+0.31MiddleOvers 7–15+0.04DeathOvers 16–20+0.25

When Vipers bat

−0.25 an over
PowerplayOvers 1–6−0.27MiddleOvers 7–15−0.31DeathOvers 16–20−0.13

Capitals bat first

First innings168
Vipers chase in18 overs
57%Vipers win
43%Capitals win

Vipers bat first

First innings164
Capitals chase in17.5 overs
59%Capitals win
41%Vipers win

Too close to call, with Dubai Capitals marginally stronger on paper

This is too close to call: Dubai Capitals sit at 51% and Desert Vipers at 49%, a gap small enough to ignore. The Capitals are the stronger side on paper, about 8 runs clear, and the edge is entirely with the bat — their batting rates 15.5 runs above average against the Vipers' 6.5, while the Vipers are the marginally better bowling unit by 1.4 runs. Put simply, the Capitals need their top order to make the difference because their attack gives a little back.

Vriitya Aravind is the weak link in the Vipers' batting, rated 1.4 runs worse than an average player, and his last 10 T20 matches brought 195 runs at a strike rate of 101.6, with that window running from October 2023 to December 2025. Against a Capitals attack led by Mustafizur Rahman (4.7 runs better than average) and Haider Ali (4.3), the Vipers' lower middle order looks the place where a par total could slip away.

What total is safe?

First inningsDefended
Under 15028%42 of 151
150–16948%44 of 92
170–18962%38 of 61
190–20990%18 of 20
210+100%5 of 5

The case for Capitals

  • The stronger batting line-up on paper, rated 15.5 runs above average against the Vipers' 6.5.
  • Faf du Plessis and Phil Salt give them an opening pair rated 4.8 and 3.6 runs better than average respectively.
  • Mustafizur Rahman and Haider Ali are both rated more than four runs better than an average bowler over four overs.

Batting standouts

Faf du Plessis

Faf du Plessis

449 runs, SR 139, 11 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.8 runs a game with the bat.

Rated 4.8 runs better than an average opener. His last 10 T20 matches brought 449 runs at a strike rate of 139.4, and he has 480 runs in 15 innings at this ground.

Phil Salt

Phil Salt

233 runs, SR 117, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.6 runs a game with the bat.

Rated 3.6 runs better than an average opener, with 233 runs in his last 10 T20 matches and 252 runs in nine innings at this ground.

Bowling standout

Mustafizur Rahman

Mustafizur Rahman

13 wkts, econ 8.36 in the last 10. Rated +4.7 runs a game with the ball.

Rated 4.7 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. His last 10 T20 matches brought 13 wickets at an economy of 8.36.

The case for Vipers

  • The marginally better bowling unit, rated 1.4 runs above the Capitals'.
  • Mujeeb Ur Rahman is rated 4.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, the standout figure in either XI.
  • Shadab Khan offers both disciplines, rated 2.9 runs better with the ball and 1.4 with the bat.

Bowling standouts

Mujeeb Ur Rahman

Mujeeb Ur Rahman

13 wkts, econ 8.27 in the last 10. Rated +4.8 runs a game with the ball.

Rated 4.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, the best in either XI. His last 10 T20 matches brought 13 wickets at an economy of 8.27.

Shadab Khan

Shadab Khan

13 wkts, econ 5.56 in the last 10. Rated +2.9 runs a game with the ball.

Rated 2.9 runs better than an average bowler and 1.4 better with the bat. His last 10 T20 matches brought 13 wickets at an economy of 5.56 and 132 runs at a strike rate of 220.

Batting weakness

VA

Vriitya Aravind

195 runs, SR 102, 3 sixes in the last 10. Rated −1.4 runs a game with the bat.

Rated 1.4 runs worse than an average batter. His last 10 T20 matches, the most recent in December 2025, brought 195 runs at a strike rate of 101.6.

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