An Oddsworth Opinion
Does Josh Hazlewood actually need reverse swing in Gqeberha?
The story
Josh Hazlewood expects reverse swing to shape the second Test in Gqeberha after Australia's seamers used Durban's rough surface to get the old ball moving. The report argues Australia's range of fast-bowling options gives them extra confidence for the rest of the series against South Africa.
ESPNcricinfo · 17 October at 08:30 BSTHazlewood backs reverse swing to remain a key factor in GqeberhaRead the full storyJosh Hazlewood reckons the old ball will be reversing again in Gqeberha, after Australia's quicks got it going on Durban's abrasive square and South Africa were bowled out for 284 and 206. Whatever the ball was doing, his eight for 103 at Kingsmead was the third haul of seven or more in his last ten Tests.
The other two were seven for 84 against West Indies in June 2025 and seven for 94 against Bangladesh in August 2026, against two very different batting line-ups on two very different tours. The simpler story is that Hazlewood has been taking wickets in bundles for a year and a half, whoever he has bowled at and whatever the ball has been doing.
3.9 a match in his career
Is the old ball doing the work, or the bowler?
In men's Tests over the last two years he averages 15.71 with the ball, against 29.19 for every bowler in that time. Our ratings have him inside the world's top ten Test bowlers, a standing built long before anyone in Durban noticed the ball going the wrong way.
The blemish is the last meeting before this series. In June 2025 against South Africa he took two for 85 from 34 overs and South Africa won by five wickets. These batters have seen him off before, and not so long ago.
Who is favoured at St George's Park?
Before the first Test our call gave South Africa a 47% chance and Australia 40%, and Australia won by 214 runs. For the second Test the two sides sit level at 42% each, which flatters the hosts: our ratings have Australia top of the Test nations and South Africa fifth, and playing at home closes that gap to parity and no further.
History leans the same way. Australia have won 15 of the 30 Tests between these two since December 2005 to South Africa's 12, and they arrive in Gqeberha with the opener already banked.
Whether the old ball reverses at St George's Park is a question for Sunday afternoon, and nothing in Durban says how much of Hazlewood's eight owed to it. What three big hauls against three different sides do settle is that he has been running through batting orders of every kind for a year and a half, so South Africa's problem on Sunday is the bowler, reverse or no reverse.
Sunday 18 October 2026, 10:00am SAST