How much did Azmatullah Omarzai's 116 really change in Sharjah?

Afghanistan were 5 for 4 in Sharjah on Thursday when Azmatullah Omarzai walked out at No.6. He left having made 116 from 50 balls, Afghanistan reached 221 for 7, and Wisden reports the recovery as a full-member T20I record on the way to a 19-run win over Zimbabwe.

His record gave little warning of an innings this size. It is his only hundred in 146 T20 innings for every side he has played for, with five fifties beside it, so Thursday stands well clear of anything else he has done with the bat.

Did Omarzai's 116 turn the match?

It did, and the scorecard shows how narrowly. Zimbabwe made 202 for 5 in reply, so Afghanistan needed almost every run they scored, and without Omarzai's hundred their total would have been nowhere near enough.

That is a remarkable thing to say about this fixture. Afghanistan have won 19 of their 21 T20Is against Zimbabwe since 2015. Our pre-match forecast made them 76% favourites on Thursday, which means one innings was all that stood between clear favourites and a rare defeat against these opponents.

Is No.6 the right place for Omarzai?

His wider record says the runs were always there. Over the last two years in men's T20s for every side, he averages 27.3 with the bat, against 24.0 for top-seven batters in that time.

He scores faster than them too, with a strike rate of 146 against the top-seven figure of 133. A batter who beats the benchmark on both counts has earned more balls than No.6 normally offers.

Paradoxically, it took a collapse to hand him a long innings. Two days earlier, in the first T20I against the same opponents, he batted eight balls for 7.

What Afghanistan should do next

Afghanistan lead the series 2-0, and our forecast makes them 72% favourites for Sunday's third T20I at the Sharjah Cricket Stadium. The series is safe, so Sunday is the time to try something.

They should not need to be four down for 5 before a batter who outscores the top-seven benchmark gets a proper innings. Move Omarzai up to No.4 or No.5, and his next big score can build a total from the start.