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Brisbane Heat v Sydney Thunder: Heat 60% to win

Heat 60%. Thunder 40%.

KFC BBL|16, match 40

Sunday 17 January 2027, 7:15pm AEST (8:15pm AEDT)The Gabba, Brisbane

Prediction locks 17th January, 08:45 UTCWhen we've said 60–70%, the favourite won 289 of 481
Photo: Rae Allen · CC BY 2.0

The Gabba

Brisbane, Australia · 67 BBL matches here

The Gabba opened in 1895 and held its first Test in November 1931.

Opened
1895
Capacity
37,000 seats
Ends
Stanley Street End · Vulture Street End
Home to
Brisbane Heat (BBL)

The ground's full record

Batting first here

31%

4 of 13 won batting first over the last three years. All-time 48% (34 of 71). BBL and T20Is.

Every first innings here

24 of 74

reached par (179). Median 172.

Under par Par or more

Recent BBL first innings average 170; games here have scored about 3% above their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 174, 2018–2022 161, 2023 onward 177.

Weather: wet, like 12 Jan 2026

Rain risk

37%

of games in wet weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out (37 of 101).

12 January 2026 at The Gabba: 22 °C, humidity 97%, wind 11 km/h and 2.7 mm of rain during the hours of play. 28 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 17 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at The Gabba during these hours.

These conditions are wet, like 12 January 2026 at The Gabba, with 2.7 mm of rain during the hours of play and the wettest spell from 20:00 to 22:00, overlapping both innings. At Australian BBL grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Lost overs and a rain-rule finish are a real possibility, and the runs picture assumes 20 overs.

During play: 22.3 °C on average, humidity 97%, wind 12 km/h gusting to 27.

Heaviest rain 20:00–22:00, mostly over both innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down.

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