Quinton de Kock
385 runs in the last 10 ODIs. Career average 45.9, strike rate 97.
The sides
| Measure | South Africa | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 17324th of 20 | 17213rd of 20 |
| Home advantage | +130Rating points | –Touring |
| XI caps | 467ODIs between the XI | 608ODIs between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 40.6ODI batting in South Africa | 32.0ODI batting in South Africa |
When South Africa bat
+0.15 an overPowerplayOvers 1–10+0.23MiddleOvers 11–45+0.13DeathOvers 46–50+0.08
When Australia bat
+0.37 an overPowerplayOvers 1–10+1.01MiddleOvers 11–45+0.27DeathOvers 46–50−0.23
First innings
290South Africa bat first
262Australia bat first
284Par
203Average here since 2019, 1 innings
371Highest here, Australia 2016
South Africa's grip on this fixture makes them favourites at Kingsmead
South Africa have won the last five ODI series between these sides. At home they won 5–0 in 2016, 3–0 in 2020 and 3–2 in 2023, when they lost the first two games in Bloemfontein and won the last three by 111, 164 and 122 runs. They have won 18 of the 26 ODIs against Australia in South Africa since 2006, and we make them 72% to win the opener.
That figure leans on the side Australia have been fielding. Travis Head missed six of their last ten ODIs, Josh Hazlewood seven and Pat Cummins all ten; Cummins has not played an ODI since November 2024. The predicted XI follows those games, so it has Oliver Peake and Matt Renshaw in the top seven rather than Head. With Head opening in place of Peake, and Hazlewood and Cummins in for Bartlett and Ellis, we would make Australia 32%. Head has 543 ODI runs against South Africa at a strike rate of 121.7, above his career 105.2, and Hazlewood has 29 wickets against them at 29.3.
Kingsmead has not staged an ODI since February 2020, and par is 284. The highest first innings here is Australia's 371 for 6 in 2016, and South Africa chased it down.
What total is safe?
ODIs in South Africa since 2019
First inningsDefended
Under 2500%0 of 12
250–27913%1 of 8
280–30983%5 of 6
310–339100%6 of 6
340+83%5 of 6
The case for South Africa
- Quinton de Kock has 499 runs in his last ten ODIs at an average of 55.4, above his career 46.5, and 1,021 runs against Australia.
- Keshav Maharaj has 18 wickets against Australia at an average of 25.8, against his career 31.4, and concedes 4.18 an over to them.
Batting standout
Bowling standout
Gerald Coetzee
23 wickets in the last 10 ODIs. Career economy 6.41.
The case for Australia
- Mitchell Marsh made 100 and Cameron Green 118 not out off 55 balls in Mackay in August 2025, when Australia made 431 for 2 and beat South Africa by 276 runs. Marsh has 452 runs in his last ten ODIs at an average of 50.2, against his career 37.8.
- Mitchell Starc has 239 ODI wickets at an average of 23.7, the best of any bowler in either squad with 50 wickets. Xavier Bartlett has 20 in his nine ODIs at 17.0 each.
Batting standout
Mitchell Marsh
495 runs in the last 10 ODIs. Career average 38.2, strike rate 97.
Bowling standout
Nathan Ellis
22 wickets in the last 10 ODIs. Career economy 5.22.