Is a home tri-series against Sri Lanka the place to blood Pakistan's next seamer?

Pakistan's ODI pace attack has stopped moving: the same names, series after series, with a World Cup coming and no new seamer handed a quiet road to learn on. Faheem's place in the XI for the tri-series opener, with Ali Raza waiting and Wasim Jr sidelined in ODIs, is the latest selection that deserves a second look.

Our ratings put some weight behind that case. Pakistan sit fifth on the ICC ODI table, but our men's ODI team ratings rank them seventh of the ten Full Members, with a 49% chance of beating an average side on a neutral ground. Put another way, on a neutral ground this is a coin-toss team.

Home form hides the problem

The table flatters them because the fixtures have been kind. Pakistan have won seven of their last ten ODIs, and the run reads like a home season: South Africa beaten by seven wickets at the start of November 2025, then Sri Lanka beaten three times in a week, then two wins from three against Australia in May and June.

The exception is the Bangladesh series in March, where Pakistan lost two of three, including an eight-wicket thumping in the opener. A side that beats South Africa and Australia and still drops a series to Bangladesh is a side that should be using its comfortable games to find out things it does not yet know.

Why Rawalpindi was the moment

Against Sri Lanka, Pakistan have won 35 of 59 ODIs since April 2003, and our forecast made them 75% favourites for the opener at Rawalpindi. A match you expect to win three times in four is exactly the game in which a backup seamer gets his first look.

The one debut handed out went to Saad Baig, and nobody begrudges him his cap. Picking Faheem over Ali Raza was a question of opportunity cost: the cheapest afternoon in the calendar for finding out about the reserve seamer went by with him still waiting.

Our forecast expects the meeting with Sri Lanka at the Gaddafi Stadium on 27 October to be just as comfortable, which makes that game the obvious place to put it right. A side our ratings have as a coin-toss against an average side on a neutral ground needs to know what its reserve seamer looks like under lights, and the friendly fixtures will not last forever. Faheem's spot on the 27th should be Ali Raza's.