An Oddsworth Opinion
What lifted Pakistan above Australia in the ODI rankings?
Pakistan have climbed above Australia on the ICC's ODI ladder, and the view doing the rounds is that this owes more to the points maths than to a better side. Our ratings agree with the new order. They rank Pakistan fourth of the ten men's ODI sides, with a 58% chance of beating an average side on a neutral ground, and Australia fifth on 56%.
Pakistan's recent ODI results
Pakistan started last November with wins over Sri Lanka by eight wickets and six wickets. Then came a wobble in March, when Bangladesh beat them twice in three games, the first by eight wickets, with Pakistan's 128-run win in between.
The series that counts came in May and June against Australia. Pakistan won the first by five wickets, lost the second by 41 runs and took the decider by four wickets. In the last few days they have kicked on in the tri-series, beating Sri Lanka by 37 runs and England by 87.
- WSri LankaWon by 8 wickets v Sri Lanka, 2025-11-14
- WSri LankaWon by 6 wickets v Sri Lanka, 2025-11-16
- LBangladeshLost by 8 wickets v Bangladesh, 2026-03-11
- WBangladeshWon by 128 runs v Bangladesh, 2026-03-13
- LBangladeshLost by 11 runs v Bangladesh, 2026-03-15
- WAustraliaWon by 5 wickets v Australia, 2026-05-30
- LAustraliaLost by 41 runs v Australia, 2026-06-02
- WAustraliaWon by 4 wickets v Australia, 2026-06-04
- WSri LankaWon by 37 runs v Sri Lanka, 2026-10-18
- WEnglandWon by 87 runs v England, 2026-10-20
Where Australia's ODI year went wrong
Since that defeat by Pakistan on 4 June, Australia have lost two of three to Bangladesh and needed a one-wicket finish to win the other, beaten Zimbabwe by one wicket after two comfortable wins, and lost the first two ODIs in South Africa by 67 and 32 runs.
Our forecasts had South Africa as heavy favourites throughout that series, at 72% at Kingsmead and 76% at The Wanderers. Australia saved some pride at JB Marks Oval, making 322 for nine and winning with South Africa on 145 for four after 28 overs.
- LPakistanLost by 4 wickets v Pakistan, 2026-06-04
- LBangladeshLost by 86 runs v Bangladesh, 2026-06-09
- LBangladeshLost by 5 wickets v Bangladesh, 2026-06-11
- WBangladeshWon by 1 wickets v Bangladesh, 2026-06-14
- WZimbabweWon by 59 runs v Zimbabwe, 2026-09-15
- WZimbabweWon by 84 runs v Zimbabwe, 2026-09-18
- WZimbabweWon by 1 wickets v Zimbabwe, 2026-09-20
- LSouth AfricaLost by 67 runs v South Africa, 2026-09-24
- LSouth AfricaLost by 32 runs v South Africa, 2026-09-27
- WSouth AfricaWon by 45 runs v South Africa, 2026-09-30
Do Pakistan deserve to be above Australia?
They do, though only just. A rating of 58% against 56% is a thin margin, and the March defeats by Bangladesh show this Pakistan side can still slip.
Australia have lost to the same Bangladesh side and been outplayed in South Africa, and their best results came against Zimbabwe.
When the two sides met head to head in May and June, Pakistan won the series two games to one. The ladder has only caught up with a scoreline settled months ago, and Pakistan have earned the higher rung.