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Is a target of 198 enough to make India sweat against Zimbabwe?

· Opinion

Fans watching India keep Zimbabwe to 197 have already filed this one away as a stroll home. Our ratings agree about the gap: India sit third of the ten women's ODI sides, worth about 21 runs a match more than an average team, and a chase of 198 is the sort of target a top-three side is expected to knock off without fuss.

Zimbabwe's results this year say the same. New Zealand beat them by 180 runs, eight wickets and 200 runs in March, then Pakistan beat them by 168 runs, 206 runs and nine wickets in May. The one win in that run, by four wickets against West Indies last month, was sandwiched between defeats by 99 and 91 runs.

Zimbabwe's last 10 ODIsOldest first
  1. LUnited Arab EmiratesLost by 45 runs v United Arab Emirates, 2025-10-02
  2. LNew ZealandLost by 180 runs v New Zealand, 2026-03-05
  3. LNew ZealandLost by 8 wickets v New Zealand, 2026-03-08
  4. LNew ZealandLost by 200 runs v New Zealand, 2026-03-11
  5. LPakistanLost by 168 runs v Pakistan, 2026-05-04
  6. LPakistanLost by 206 runs v Pakistan, 2026-05-06
  7. LPakistanLost by 9 wickets v Pakistan, 2026-05-09
  8. LWest IndiesLost by 99 runs v West Indies, 2026-09-24
  9. WWest IndiesWon by 4 wickets v West Indies, 2026-09-27
  10. LWest IndiesLost by 91 runs v West Indies, 2026-09-30

What a target of 198 asks of India's batters

Top-seven batters across women's ODIs over the last two years have averaged 31 at a strike rate of 80, and that norm takes in plenty of batting against the best attacks in the game. A side that bats to it reaches 198 with overs to spare, and India are rated well above the norm.

Our women's ODI team ratingsRuns a match better than an average side
  1. 1. Australia+71.0
  2. 2. England+28.2
  3. 3. India+21.1
  4. 4. South Africa+5.2
  5. 5. New Zealand-2.5
  6. 6. Pakistan-15.8
  7. 7. West Indies-18.8
  8. 8. Sri Lanka-20.4
  9. 9. Thailand-34.8
  10. 10. Bangladesh-40.8

India's own form is the one worry

The catch is that India go into this chase on the back of a run of ODI defeats, all against Australia in February and March, the last of them by 185 runs. Before that they had beaten New Zealand by 53 runs, Australia by five wickets and South Africa by 52 last October, having lost to South Africa, Australia and England by three wickets, three wickets and four runs.

So this is a side that loses to good teams by small margins and to the best team by a big one, and none of those opponents have anything like Zimbabwe's record. The question the chase will answer is whether the Australia hangover has lasted into the autumn, and it will show in wickets lost rather than in the result.

India's last 10 ODIsOldest first
  1. LSouth AfricaLost by 3 wickets v South Africa, 2025-10-09
  2. LAustraliaLost by 3 wickets v Australia, 2025-10-12
  3. LEnglandLost by 4 runs v England, 2025-10-19
  4. WNew ZealandWon by 53 runs v New Zealand, 2025-10-23
  5. NRBangladeshNo result v Bangladesh, 2025-10-26
  6. WAustraliaWon by 5 wickets v Australia, 2025-10-30
  7. WSouth AfricaWon by 52 runs v South Africa, 2025-11-02
  8. LAustraliaLost by 6 wickets v Australia, 2026-02-24
  9. LAustraliaLost by 5 wickets v Australia, 2026-02-27
  10. LAustraliaLost by 185 runs v Australia, 2026-03-01

Who should win from here?

India, and by a distance. The only attention worth paying is to how many wickets go down on the way, because a side fresh from that Australia series needs to show it can knock off a modest target without a wobble.

The stroll home is India's to spoil, and nobody in a Zimbabwe shirt is likely to do it for them.

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