Steve Smith goes back to Newlands with a chapter to rewrite

Steve Smith is back at Newlands for the third Test, and Australia's batting is under scrutiny after defeat in the second. The Hindustan Times puts it plainly: Australia need their best batter to score, at the ground tied to the worst episode of his career.

The scores from this series explain the worry. He made 25 and 27 at Kingsmead, then 28 and 3 at St George's Park, where Australia were bowled out for 99 and lost by an innings and 31 runs.

How far has Steve Smith fallen from his peak?

Less far than four quiet innings suggest. Smith's career Test average is 55.29. Over the last two years it has eased to 45.45, against 33.16 for top-seven batters in men's Tests over the same period.

So the slower Smith is still well clear of the typical top-order batter, and our ratings keep him among the leading handful of Test batters in the world. He has kept making hundreds too, the latest against England in January, so the method has not gone stale.

This is a gentler chapter than his best years, and nowhere near the darkest one.

What his innings in this series tell you

The more worrying sign is the tempo. The 28 at St George's Park took him 88 balls, the innings of a batter who was in but could find no way to kick on while South Africa's 425 for nine loomed over the match.

He has not gone past 28 in four innings this series, so the hard yards are being done without the reward.

Can Australia level the series at Newlands?

Australia remain our top-rated Test side, with a 75% chance of beating an average team on a neutral ground. Yet our call for Tuesday makes them only 39% to win, against 43% for South Africa, with the series level after a win apiece.

Those numbers lean towards the side that won by an innings at St George's Park. Swinging them back needs big runs from their best batter. Newlands holds the darkest page of his story. A proper innings here is the one way to write over it, and his numbers say he still has the ink.