Mitchell Marsh
495 runs in the last 10 ODIs. Career average 38.2, strike rate 97.
The sides
| Measure | Australia | England |
|---|---|---|
| Elo rating | 1740Rating points | 1634Rating points |
| Home advantage | +130Rating points | –Touring |
| XI caps | 466ODIs between the XI | 640ODIs between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 33.3ODI batting in Australia | 33.1ODI batting in Australia |
| Bowling average | 34.7Five main bowlers, ODIs | 33.7Five main bowlers, ODIs |
When Australia bat
−0.03 an overPowerplayOvers 1–10+0.41MiddleOvers 11–45−0.12DeathOvers 46–50−0.25
When England bat
+0.26 an overPowerplayOvers 1–10+0.02MiddleOvers 11–45+0.28DeathOvers 46–50+0.63
First innings
298Australia bat first
253England bat first
282Par
–Average here since 2019, 0 innings
259Highest here, England 2018
Australia favoured at home despite England's stronger XI
Australia are favoured at 63 per cent to England's 37, with home advantage in Perth, a projection of 298 batting first to England's 253, and a par of 282. England's XI rates stronger, 34.5 runs a match above an average Full Member side to Australia's 18.6, but the home side's win probability is clear.
Australia's top seven average 22.9 against left-arm finger spin since 2023, 40 per cent below their 38.4 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by 4 per cent. Jacob Bethell and Liam Dawson, both in our predicted XI, give England left-arm finger spin options.
What total is safe?
ODIs in Australia since 2019
First inningsDefended
Under 2509%1 of 11
250–27980%4 of 5
280–30967%4 of 6
310–339No games
340+100%3 of 3
The case for Australia
- Australia are at home and favoured at 63 per cent; the projection has them making 298 batting first against a par of 282.
- Mitchell Marsh has 495 runs in his last 10 matches and an ODI strike rate of 96.9; Xavier Bartlett has 15 wickets in 10.
- Australia's top seven average 68.2 against off-spin since 2023, 78 per cent above their 38.4 against all bowling.
Batting standout
Bowling standout
Xavier Bartlett
15 wickets in the last 10 ODIs. Career economy 5.19.
The case for England
- England's XI rates 34.5 runs a match above an average Full Member side, against Australia's 18.6; their batting alone rates 30.1 to Australia's 18.
- England's top seven average 45.1 against all bowling since 2023 at a strike rate of 99.4; Ben Duckett has 629 runs in his last 10 matches.
- England's top seven average 59 against left-arm pace since 2023, 31 per cent above their all-bowling average, with Spencer Johnson in our predicted XI.
Batting standout
Ben Duckett
629 runs in the last 10 ODIs. Career average 45.9, strike rate 101.
Bowling standout
Jofra Archer
17 wickets in the last 10 ODIs. Career economy 5.14.