The ILT20 auction's winners and losers

MI Emirates paid $380,000 for Fazalhaq Farooqi in Dubai, the most any franchise has paid for a player in the ILT20, and left the auction having spent more than anyone else. So did the biggest spenders buy the title? Our forecast says they did not. Desert Vipers spent $849,000, the least of the six franchises, and they are our favourites to win the tournament at 25%.

Why the last week matters most

The title is decided in the playoffs and the final on 20 December, so the players a side has in that last week matter most to its chance of winning the tournament. Abu Dhabi Knight Riders show the cost of getting that wrong. Our ratings make them the second-strongest side across the season, yet they are only fourth in the title forecast at 20%. Finn Allen leaves for the BBL before the playoffs, and without him their rating in the playoff week is the lowest of the top four.

Dubai Capitals are in the opposite position. Phil Salt is likely to miss the opening matches while England play T20Is in Australia, and Mustafizur Rahman is likely to be away for Bangladesh's tour of South Africa. Both should be back for the playoffs, which leaves only Marcus Stoinis missing from their full-strength side. The Capitals are fourth by our season rating and second in the title forecast at 21%.

What four unopposed signings gave the Vipers

All five Pakistani players bought at the auction went unopposed at their $80,000 base price, and the Vipers took four of them: Babar Azam, Naseem Shah, Fakhar Zaman and Shadab Khan. None of the four has an international commitment during the season, so all of them are available from the first match to the final.

That is depth the Vipers are likely to need. Aneurin Donald is likely to be with England in Australia until early December, and Dan Lawrence is likely to leave for England's Test tour of South Africa before the last week. With four experienced players on hand all season, the Vipers can cover either absence without dropping far in strength. The result is the highest playoff-week rating of any side, 34.1 runs a match above an average men's T20 side on our ratings, against 31.7 for the Capitals in second.

The price of an Afghanistan place

Every XI in the league needs two Afghanistan players, and every squad needs at least four. Of the 20 Afghanistan players bought at the auction, our ratings put only four above an average player, and those four were the four most expensive. With so few good ones to go round, the franchises paid a premium for them.

Farooqi's fee looks steep on his bowling alone. Our ratings have him worth 1.2 runs a match more than an average player, which is a modest return for a record price. But he fills one of MI Emirates' two compulsory places alongside Rashid Khan, and he is there all season. Mohammad Nabi, the best-rated of the four, went to Sharjah Warriorz for $140,000, which suggests the premium could have been paid more cheaply. MI Emirates also lose Jonny Bairstow to the BBL before the playoffs, and they sit third in our title forecast at 20%.

The best bargain

Donald cost the Vipers $40,000 and is the best-rated player bought at the auction, worth 9.3 runs a match more than an average player on our ratings. The trouble is that he is likely to miss the start of the tournament with England. Over the whole season, that absence cuts what he is worth to the Vipers to 5.5 runs a match.

Usman Tariq has no such gap. The Knight Riders signed him unopposed at $80,000, and he is available for every match, so he is worth his full 6.3 runs a match over the whole season. That puts Tariq just ahead of Donald as the best-value signing of the auction, even though Tariq's fee was twice Donald's. Tariq will also be there in the playoff week, when the Knight Riders are without Allen and need him most.

The biggest gamble

Gulf Giants paid $230,000 for Alzarri Joseph, and it is a sizeable gamble. Nobody doubts his talent, but he has yet to show it in T20 cricket. His economy over the last two years is 9.36, against 8.01 for all men's T20 cricket. Of the ten most expensive buys, he is the one our ratings like least. A season that lasts a month gives a franchise little time to coach a bowler into form.

The Giants spent $1,267,000 in all, the second most, and our forecast gives them a 9% chance of the title. Sharjah Warriorz are lower still at 5%. They did well to get Adil Rashid at his base price, but he too could miss matches at the start while England are in Australia.

Winners and losers

The Capitals are winners, because their absences are likely to fall early and their best players should be back for the week that decides the title. The Knight Riders are winners too, on a smaller scale: they spent the second least and found the best-value signing in Tariq, though losing Allen before the playoffs leaves them fourth in our forecast. MI Emirates are losers. They spent the most, paid a record fee for Farooqi, and are third in our forecast with Bairstow gone before the playoffs.

The Giants are losers as well: they spent the second most, put $230,000 on Joseph, and have a 9% chance of the title. So are the Warriorz, who have the lowest title chance of the six and could start without Rashid.

The Vipers had the best draft day. They spent the least, they bought cover for every likely absence, and they have the strongest side in the last week.