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Where Australia really stand a year before the World Cup

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The story

Wisden has published power rankings of the top ten teams a year before the 2027 Men's ODI World Cup, and its headline asks whether Australia belong in fourth place.

Wisden · 5 October at 15:02 BSTAustralia at fourth place? Power Ranking the top ten teams a year before the 2027 World CupRead the full story

Wisden has power-ranked the top ten teams a year before the 2027 Men's ODI World Cup, and its headline asks whether Australia belong at fourth place.

Our ratings would call fourth generous. They have Australia sixth of the ten leading men's ODI sides, with a 49% chance of beating an average side. Put another way, the Australians are slightly worse than a coin toss against an ordinary opponent.

The official rankings have them third. That is a side living on credit.

Our men's ODI team ratingsChance of beating an average Full Member side on a neutral ground
  1. 1. India72%
  2. 2. New Zealand62%
  3. 3. South Africa60%
  4. 4. England54%
  5. 5. Pakistan49%
  6. 6. Australia49%
  7. 7. Sri Lanka47%
  8. 8. West Indies41%
  9. 9. Bangladesh40%
  10. 10. Zimbabwe27%

Australia's recent ledger

Credit is built on old results, and the recent ones are thin.

Since June Australia have lost to Pakistan by four wickets, lost to Bangladesh by 86 runs and then by five wickets, beaten them by a single wicket, won three against Zimbabwe, one of those also by one wicket, and lost to South Africa by 67 runs and by 32.

They did finish by beating South Africa by 47 runs. But South Africa, who took two of those three, sit third in our ratings with a 60% chance of beating an average side, and looked every bit of it.

Australia's last 10 ODIsOldest first
  1. LPakistanLost by 4 wickets v Pakistan, 2026-06-04
  2. LBangladeshLost by 86 runs v Bangladesh, 2026-06-09
  3. LBangladeshLost by 5 wickets v Bangladesh, 2026-06-11
  4. WBangladeshWon by 1 wickets v Bangladesh, 2026-06-14
  5. WZimbabweWon by 59 runs v Zimbabwe, 2026-09-15
  6. WZimbabweWon by 84 runs v Zimbabwe, 2026-09-18
  7. WZimbabweWon by 1 wickets v Zimbabwe, 2026-09-20
  8. LSouth AfricaLost by 67 runs v South Africa, 2026-09-24
  9. LSouth AfricaLost by 32 runs v South Africa, 2026-09-27
  10. WSouth AfricaWon by 47 runs v South Africa, 2026-09-30

The side being short-changed

England are the reverse case. The official rankings have them seventh, while our ratings have them fourth, with a 54% chance of beating an average side.

In July they lost to India by six wickets, then won the next two, by four wickets and by 27 runs. In September they made 355 for seven against Sri Lanka at The Oval and bowled them out for 132. They are still a side with an off day in them: at Headingley, in the match before, Sri Lanka made 321 for six and England finished on 305 for nine.

India, for all that, remain top of our ratings with a 72% chance of beating an average side, even after losing to West Indies by five wickets on 3 October and dropping two of three to New Zealand in January.

England's last 10 ODIsOldest first
  1. LNew ZealandLost by 2 wickets v New Zealand, 2025-11-01
  2. LSri LankaLost by 19 runs v Sri Lanka, 2026-01-22
  3. WSri LankaWon by 5 wickets v Sri Lanka, 2026-01-24
  4. WSri LankaWon by 53 runs v Sri Lanka, 2026-01-27
  5. LIndiaLost by 6 wickets v India, 2026-07-14
  6. WIndiaWon by 4 wickets v India, 2026-07-16
  7. WIndiaWon by 27 runs v India, 2026-07-19
  8. WSri LankaWon by 89 runs v Sri Lanka, 2026-09-22
  9. LSri LankaLost by 16 runs v Sri Lanka, 2026-09-24
  10. WSri LankaWon by 223 runs v Sri Lanka, 2026-09-27

A year to settle up

On these ratings India go to 2027 as the side to beat, South Africa and England as the ones with a case, and Australia as a mid-table team with a famous name.

Australia have a year to pay off the credit. Their next meeting with one of those three will show whether they have started.

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