An Oddsworth Opinion
Can Australia chase 288 on the last day at Newlands?
The story
Centuries from Ryan Rickelton and Wiaan Mulder took South Africa to 387 in their second innings of the deciding third Test, leaving Australia 288 to win a series level at 1-1. The report expects difficult final-day batting conditions, with Simon Harmer's spin likely to prove decisive.
The Times of India · 31 October at 02:33 GMTRickelton, Mulder tons help SA set 288-run target for Aus in series deciderRead the full storySouth Africa have done the hard part at Newlands. Hundreds from Ryan Rickelton and Wiaan Mulder lifted their second innings to 387, leaving Australia 288 to win the third Test and a series that stands at 1-1, on a final day when batting is expected to be tricky and Simon Harmer's spin could decide it. Rickelton's century is a turnaround of its own, because he came into this match with scores of 0, 2 and 31 in the series. The man who should worry Australia more is Mulder, who has been taking their wickets all series and will have the ball in his hand again.
What our forecast gave Australia at the start
Before a ball was bowled, our forecast gave Australia a 39% chance of winning this Test, a shade behind South Africa, and their hopes look slimmer now that the match has come down to a last-day chase in difficult conditions with Harmer waiting at one end. Our ratings do make Australia the best Test side in the world, ahead of South Africa in second, and that pedigree is the main reason to give them any hope at all.
The last time this batting order faced a South African attack with the match at stake, at St George's Park, it was bowled out for 99 in 42.3 overs and went down like a stack of plastic garden chairs in a summer storm. Australia lost that Test by an innings.
- WWest IndiesWon by 176 runs v West Indies, 2025-07-12
- WEnglandWon by 8 wickets v England, 2025-11-21
- WEnglandWon by 8 wickets v England, 2025-12-04
- WEnglandWon by 82 runs v England, 2025-12-17
- LEnglandLost by 4 wickets v England, 2025-12-26
- WEnglandWon by 5 wickets v England, 2026-01-04
- LBangladeshLost by 9 wickets v Bangladesh, 2026-08-13
- WBangladeshWon by an innings and 51 runs v Bangladesh, 2026-08-22
- WSouth AfricaWon by 214 runs v South Africa, 2026-10-09
- LSouth AfricaLost by an innings and 31 runs v South Africa, 2026-10-18
Why Wiaan Mulder makes the chase harder
Mulder has turned into the all-rounder South Africa spent years hoping he would become. Over the last two years in men's Tests he has averaged 61.6 with the bat, against 33.2 for top-seven batters in that time, and this hundred adds to the pile. His bowling is the half that matters on the final day, and our ratings rank him 18th among Test bowlers, worth about 13 runs a match more than an average one. Australia have already felt it in this series, because he has taken wickets in both Tests and saved his biggest haul for the innings defeat at St George's Park. With his seam at one end and Harmer's spin at the other, Australia's batters will get few easy overs to settle into the chase.
1.9 a match in his career
Who wins the series?
South Africa should take it. Australia's batting has already folded once in this series under far less pressure, and South Africa's bowlers have plenty of runs to defend on a final day when batting is expected to be hard work. The deciding Test will belong to the side that found an all-rounder who does both jobs properly, and South Africa have one in Mulder.