Did Virat Kohli really save India in the first ODI?

India got home by five wickets in the first ODI against New Zealand, and the innings everyone has talked about since is Virat Kohli's 74 from 51 balls. The view doing the rounds is that he carried the chase and that the match would have slipped away without him. He has earned that sort of faith: at 38 he sits third in our men's ODI batting ratings, worth 8.6 runs a match more than an average player. The side he was batting for, though, is the top-rated side in the format, and that matters when the credit for a win is being handed out.

What the innings was worth

The tempo was the striking part of the day. Over the last two years in men's ODIs Kohli has scored at a strike rate of 106.8 against 85.3 for top-seven batters, and 74 from 51 balls is quicker again, so the chase was hurried along from the moment he settled.

The swings inside his recent record are the salient point. In September he made 139 not out from 88 balls against West Indies, then fell first ball three days later in a match India lost by five wickets. The 74 against New Zealand sits between those extremes: a brisk, substantial innings from a batter whose output in any one match runs from nothing to a match-winning hundred, which is why one good day cannot be read as the whole difference between winning and losing.

How strong is the side around him?

Our ratings make India the best ODI side in the world, ranked first of twelve with a 74% chance of beating an average Full Member side, and that strength runs through the order. The clearest evidence came in the second ODI against West Indies at the end of September, when India chased 406 and Kohli contributed 29 off 19. India still finished that chase two wickets down, which means the order has carried a target above 400 with only a cameo from him, and the same order was batting around him in the first ODI against New Zealand.

The verdict on the first ODI

Kohli's 74 improved India's position markedly, and the pace of it is what shortened the chase. Calling it a rescue overstates the case, though, because a rescue needs a side in trouble, and the side around him is the strongest in the format by our ratings, with an order that has already carried a chase of 406 on a day he made 29. The fair reading of the first ODI is that Kohli made a five-wicket win quicker, and the ten batting alongside him made it a five-wicket win.