Australia in ODIs
What is Australia’s name worth at the bookmakers?
David Miller’s 142 at the Wanderers yesterday won South Africa their sixth ODI series in a row against Australia. The bookmakers had Australia as favourites for the game, as they had in Durban three days earlier, where South Africa won by 67 runs.
That has become a habit. Australia have been favourites in all 16 ODIs between the two sides since 2018, and they have won four of them.
The reputation
Australia’s name carries weight in one-day cricket, and they earned it. They have won six World Cups. At the last, in 2023, they lost their first two games, then beat South Africa in the semi-final and India in the final in Ahmedabad. Before that final, Sunil Gavaskar warned that “Australians can never be written off”.
That reputation was built in knockout games. Most of Australia’s ODIs are bilateral series, played in Cairns and Mackay, Lahore and Mirpur, often without several of their best players.
What the market expected
Since the start of 2018 Australia have played 95 bilateral ODIs, and on average the market made them 56% favourites. They won 48, or 51%, about five wins fewer than the market expected.
No other leading side has fallen so far short of its billing. The market expected India to win 63% of their 105 games, and they won 61%. England were expected to win 60% and won 59%. New Zealand went the other way, winning 64% of their games when the market expected 55%.
Market’s chanceWon
- New Zealand91 gamesMarket 55% · won 64%
- Bangladesh83 gamesMarket 50% · won 57%
- Sri Lanka88 gamesMarket 43% · won 46%
- South Africa87 gamesMarket 56% · won 58%
- England98 gamesMarket 60% · won 59%
- India105 gamesMarket 63% · won 61%
- Pakistan81 gamesMarket 56% · won 53%
- West Indies98 gamesMarket 42% · won 38%
- Australia95 gamesMarket 56% · won 51%
The gap is widest when Australia looked safest. In the 19 games where the market made them at least 65% favourites, they won only ten. Those include a three-wicket defeat by Zimbabwe at Townsville in 2022, a game Australia were expected to win 19 times out of 20, and a nine-wicket thrashing by Pakistan at Adelaide in 2024.
South Africa, series after series
| Series | Played in | Market’s chance for Australia | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Australia | 57% | South Africa won 2–1 |
| 2020 | South Africa | 68% | South Africa won 3–0 |
| 2023 | South Africa | 56% | South Africa won 3–2 |
| 2025 | Australia | 66% | South Africa won 2–1 |
| 2026 | South Africa | 56% | South Africa lead 2–0 |
The 2020 tour set the tone. Australia arrived as heavy favourites, lost the opener at Paarl by 74 runs and lost the next two by six wickets each. In 2023 they won the first two games in Bloemfontein and lost the last three, the decider by 122 runs at the Wanderers. Last August, at home in Cairns and Mackay, they lost the first two games by 98 and 84 runs. The 431 for 2 they made in the third game came after the series had gone.
This month the damage has come in the middle overs. At Kingsmead Australia went from 96 for 1 to 230 all out as Keshav Maharaj took 4 for 20. At the Wanderers South Africa’s three spinners took five wickets between them for under six an over, while Miller and Temba Bavuma added 156 for the fourth wicket.
The missing names
Part of the gap has a plain cause. Australia often rest their best players from bilateral series, and the market hardly adjusts when they do.
Since 2022, when at least three of Travis Head, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc played, Australia won eight of 13 games, close to what the market expected. With two or fewer of them, they won 21 of 41, when the market expected them to win about 25. In Bangladesh in June, without any of the four, Australia were favourites in all three games and lost two.
Thirteen games is a short run, but the full side has been rated about right. That makes this series the awkward one. Head and Hazlewood played at Kingsmead, Starc joined them at the Wanderers, and South Africa won both anyway.
Where the Aussies are underrated
India are the exception. Australia have won 12 of their 23 ODIs against India since 2018, when the market expected about ten wins. In India they won seven of 14, including three in a row in 2019 to take a series from 2–0 down. India were favourites for the 2023 World Cup final in Ahmedabad, too.
Potchefstroom on Wednesday
The series finishes at JB Marks Oval on Wednesday, with rain forecast for the start. Australia lost there by six wickets in 2020. If they start as favourites again, anyone backing them is backing a side that has won four of its 16 bilateral ODIs against South Africa since 2018, and none of the last six series.