An Oddsworth Opinion
Can South Africa hold off Australia's habit of hitting back at Newlands?
Newlands has served up the sort of day that sends commentators reaching for the fairground, with the third Test lurching one way and then the other between South Africa and Australia.
A close contest was always likely, because our ratings have Australia as the best Test side in the world and South Africa as the second, with Australia given a 75% chance of beating an average side and South Africa 70%.
Put another way, the two best teams in Test cricket are barely a step apart.
How the series has swung from Kingsmead to Newlands
The ride started at Kingsmead, where Australia won by 214 runs even though our pre-match figures had South Africa 47% to win against Australia's 40%.
Then came St George's Park, where Australia were bowled out for 99 in their first innings and South Africa won by an innings and 31 runs. The side that had run the first Test was flattened in the second.
How do South Africa and Australia respond to defeat?
They hit straight back. In their last ten Tests, South Africa have answered every defeat with a win, and Australia had done the same until St George's Park.
Australia were beaten by England on Boxing Day 2025 and won the next Test, then lost to Bangladesh by nine wickets in August and answered with an innings win by 51 runs. South Africa followed a 93-run defeat by Pakistan with an eight-wicket win, and followed Kingsmead with St George's Park.
So Australia arrive at Newlands as a side with a habit of hitting back, and they arrive straight after a heavy defeat.
- WWest IndiesWon by 176 runs v West Indies, 2025-07-12
- WEnglandWon by 8 wickets v England, 2025-11-21
- WEnglandWon by 8 wickets v England, 2025-12-04
- WEnglandWon by 82 runs v England, 2025-12-17
- LEnglandLost by 4 wickets v England, 2025-12-26
- WEnglandWon by 5 wickets v England, 2026-01-04
- LBangladeshLost by 9 wickets v Bangladesh, 2026-08-13
- WBangladeshWon by an innings and 51 runs v Bangladesh, 2026-08-22
- WSouth AfricaWon by 214 runs v South Africa, 2026-10-09
- LSouth AfricaLost by an innings and 31 runs v South Africa, 2026-10-18
Who will win the Newlands Test?
History gives Australia the longer rope. Of 30 Tests between these sides since Boxing Day 2005, Australia have won 15 and South Africa 12.
Our forecast before the toss still leaned the other way, with South Africa 43% to win the decider and Australia 39%. That is a whisker, and Kingsmead showed how little a whisker can count for.
Australia bring their gift for bouncing back from a beating, and that is the strongest thing in their favour. But at home, with the edge our numbers gave them before a ball was bowled, South Africa are the likelier side to be standing when the ride finally stops.