Oddsworth

An Oddsworth Opinion

Have South Africa really overtaken Australia as the best Test side?

· Opinion

The story

Australia collapsed to 111 chasing 288 on the final day at Newlands, with Simon Harmer doing the damage, and South Africa won the series 2-1. The report says the win carries South Africa past Australia to the top of the Test world rankings for the first time since January 2016.

The Times of India · 31 October at 14:07 GMTAustralia hammered by Harmer in Cape Town as South Africa take series 2-1Read the full story

Australia, set 288 at Newlands, were all out for 111 in the second session of the final day, Simon Harmer taking ten for 120 in the match, and The Times of India reports that the 2-1 series win carries South Africa above Australia to the top of the Test world rankings for the first time since January 2016. Our ratings are slower to move house. They still have Australia as the best Test side in the world, with a 74% chance of beating an average Full Member on a neutral ground, and South Africa second on 70%. The gap is about one good session wide.

Our men's Test team ratingsChance of beating an average Full Member side on a neutral ground
  1. 1. Australia74%
  2. 2. South Africa70%
  3. 3. India66%
  4. 4. England66%
  5. 5. New Zealand64%
  6. 6. Pakistan51%
  7. 7. Sri Lanka43%
  8. 8. West Indies36%
  9. 9. Bangladesh33%
  10. 10. Afghanistan32%
  11. 11. Zimbabwe17%

Favourites at home all series

Our forecasts had already made South Africa the side to beat at Kingsmead, with a 47% chance against Australia's 40%, and they stayed level or ahead at St George's Park and Newlands too. The longer record belongs to Australia. Since the Boxing Day Test of 2005 the two have met 30 times and Australia have won 15 to South Africa's 12.

South Africa have won eight of their last ten Tests, including home wins over India by 30 runs and by 408, while Australia have lost three of their last five, one of them a nine-wicket defeat to Bangladesh in August.

South Africa's last 10 TestsOldest first
  1. WAustraliaWon by 5 wickets v Australia, 2025-06-11
  2. WZimbabweWon by 328 runs v Zimbabwe, 2025-06-28
  3. WZimbabweWon by an innings and 236 runs v Zimbabwe, 2025-07-06
  4. LPakistanLost by 93 runs v Pakistan, 2025-10-12
  5. WPakistanWon by 8 wickets v Pakistan, 2025-10-20
  6. WIndiaWon by 30 runs v India, 2025-11-14
  7. WIndiaWon by 408 runs v India, 2025-11-22
  8. LAustraliaLost by 214 runs v Australia, 2026-10-09
  9. WAustraliaWon by an innings and 31 runs v Australia, 2026-10-18
  10. WAustraliaWon by 176 runs v Australia, 2026-10-27

Simon Harmer, the off-spinner who finished the job

Harmer's ten for 120 at Newlands came from an off-spinner who has played only 17 Tests in a career that began in January 2015. Kagiso Rabada is still the better bowler in our ratings, seventh in the world and worth about 30 runs a match more than an average bowler, with Harmer 13th on 18. Rabada is the one the opposition plan for. Harmer is the one who finished them.

Harmer's wickets in his last 12 Test matchesWickets, oldest first

4.9 a match in his career

Which table to believe

The rankings in the report reward what just happened, our rating weighs a longer stretch, and the longer view is the right one. Australia still sit ahead on a run that includes four wins in five against England last winter, while South Africa's claim rests on a home series our forecasts expected them to shade anyway. Newlands earned them the series and the headline. Our ratings still make Australia the side to beat, and South Africa take that title the day they beat them somewhere other than at home.

More on Oddsworth

Share