What Craig Ervine's double hundred did to Zimbabwe's chances in Sharjah

Craig Ervine's unbeaten 206 in Sharjah is being hailed as the innings of his life, and the size of what it saved backs that up. Zimbabwe batted through the whole final day to draw the first Test against Afghanistan. Our forecast had made Afghanistan 73% favourites before a ball was bowled, with Zimbabwe given a 19% chance of winning.

Six centuries in one match, Rahmat Shah's 173 among them, tell you the Sharjah pitch gave the bowlers very little. Batting through a fifth day against a side pressing for the win still asks for hours of concentration, and Zimbabwe have folded often enough lately, losing by an innings and 359 runs to New Zealand last year.

The best innings of Craig Ervine's Test career

Ervine has always been a patient left-hander who lets the runs come slowly. Over the last two years in men's Tests his strike rate was 48.6, against 56.9 for top-seven batters. Before Sharjah his highest Test score was 160, and 2025 had been lean, with no score above 49 against England, South Africa or New Zealand.

Our ratings had him 87th of 122 Test batters, worth 6.5 runs a match less than an average player, so this was far beyond anything his recent record pointed to. It also made him the oldest Zimbabwean to score a Test hundred.

Did the draw change the Afghanistan v Zimbabwe series?

The draw spared Zimbabwe a defeat, but it has barely moved the outlook for Friday. Our forecast for the second Test at the same ground still makes Afghanistan 72% favourites. In our men's Test team ratings Zimbabwe sit last, with Afghanistan one place above them, and one long innings from one batter does little to close that gap.

If you are Afghanistan's captain, you go back to the ground knowing your side had the stronger hand going into the match. The worry is your bowlers, who need twenty wickets on a surface where six hundreds were scored last week.

Will Ervine's innings decide the series?

Ervine played the innings of his career and earned Zimbabwe a draw they had little right to expect, but it leaves the series in Afghanistan's hands. They were the better side going into Sharjah and they still are. Zimbabwe can only square things on Friday if someone else in their top order is ready to bat as long as Ervine did, and on their recent form that is a lot to ask.