An Oddsworth Opinion
How far did Josh Inglis tip the scales at Newlands?
The story
Josh Inglis led the way as a reshuffled Australia took the upper hand at Newlands in the third Test against South Africa. Matt Renshaw, Cameron Green and an unbeaten Alex Carey also made fifties, leaving the home attack with little to show for its work.
ESPNcricinfo · 29 October at 02:51 GMTInglis leads reshuffled Australia to advantage in Cape TownRead the full storyJosh Inglis led a reshuffled Australia into a strong position at Newlands, with Matt Renshaw, Cameron Green and an unbeaten Alex Carey also reaching fifty, in a series level at one Test apiece.
Before a ball was bowled, our forecast made South Africa 43% to win this decider and Australia 39%. The scales leaned gently towards the hosts, and the batter who has done most to push them back came in with the thinnest record of the four.
Josh Inglis's Test record before Cape Town
Inglis arrived with a batting average of 26.29 from seven Test innings, against 33.16 for top-seven batters in men's Tests over the last two years. There was a hundred against Sri Lanka in January 2025, then a string of short stays against West Indies and England that never got past 32.
What he has always offered is tempo, with a Test strike rate of 80.7 against 57.1 for top-seven batters, and runs at that speed hand the bowlers extra time to bowl a side out twice in a match that has to be won.
Career average 26.3
The batters around Inglis
Carey's unbeaten fifty is the least surprising of the four. Our ratings make him the 16th-best Test batter in the world, worth nearly 16 runs a match more than an average player, and he has been Australia's steadiest hand down the order for some time.
Renshaw made 190 at Kingsmead, then fell cheaply twice at St George's Park, so this was a timely answer. Green has now followed his hundred against Bangladesh in August with another half-century, and looks a batter who has kicked on.
Career average 35.1Not out
Can Australia close out the series from here?
Australia arrived as our top-rated Test side, with a 75% chance of beating an average side, just ahead of South Africa on 70%. The series has swung as that narrow gap suggested it might: a 214-run win at Kingsmead, then 99 all out and an innings defeat at St George's Park.
Inglis came to Newlands with one Test hundred and little else, and has given the best side in the world the platform a decider demands. The scales now sit with Australia, and it was Inglis who tipped them.