The toss call W.G. Grace warned captains about

“When you win the toss – bat. If you are in doubt, think about it, then bat. If you have very big doubts, consult a colleague – then bat.” The advice is usually credited to W.G. Grace, and England keeps giving captains reasons to doubt it.

Babar Azam was the latest. He chose to bowl at Lord’s last month, and Pakistan were bowled out for 110 and lost by 194 runs. “We won the toss and bowled first, and we tried to utilise the conditions,” he said afterwards.

The temptation in England

Nearly half of the captains who win the toss in England choose to bowl, more than anywhere outside New Zealand. Those who batted have won more Tests than they lost; those who bowled have lost more than they won.

Visiting captains have paid the heaviest price. After winning the toss in England and choosing to bowl, they won 6 of 33 Tests and lost 22.

Ricky Ponting made the most famous of those calls at Edgbaston in 2005. England made 407 on the first day and Australia lost by two runs. Ponting later admitted the decision was “hard to justify”. Shane Warne called it “the worst decision made by a captain I played under”.

MS Dhoni followed at Lord’s and Trent Bridge in 2011, and India lost both. Jason Holder did the same twice at Old Trafford in 2020, and West Indies lost both. Australia have bowled first four times in England without winning once.

South Africa have made it work. Graeme Smith bowled at Headingley in 2008 and won by ten wickets. Dean Elgar chose to bowl at Lord’s in 2022 and won by an innings.

South Africa also bowled first to win the 2025 World Test Championship final at Lord’s. Williamson’s New Zealand had won the 2021 final at the Rose Bowl the same way.

England’s own captains have handled home conditions better. Ben Stokes has made bowling first a plan, choosing it after winning 11 of his 14 home tosses and losing only two of those Tests.

Cook, the captain who doubted most

Alastair Cook sent the opposition in nine times. England won three and lost five, despite our ratings making them favourites in almost all of those Tests.

When Cook chose to bat with a team of the same strength, England won 10 of their 15 decided Tests. His bowl-first record is hard to defend against that return.

The defeats clustered over two English summers. Sri Lanka won at Headingley in 2014, then India won at Lord’s a month later on a green pitch. New Zealand won at Headingley in 2015, and Australia beat England by an innings at the Oval that August.

Captain	Bowled first	W–L–D	Expected	Won
Alastair Cook	9	3–5–1	61.0%	37.5%
MS Dhoni	8	2–3–3	63.0%	40.0%
Daniel Vettori	8	2–5–1	50.1%	28.6%
Angelo Mathews	10	3–6–1	48.8%	33.3%
Joe Root	12	4–7–1	50.8%	36.4%
Ben Stokes	14	9–3–2	55.5%	75.0%
Graeme Smith	16	11–3–2	62.8%	78.6%
Kane Williamson	15	11–2–2	61.1%	84.6%

Dhoni runs Cook close. Our ratings made India favourites in most of his bowl-first Tests, yet they won only two of them. Cook stands out because England kept losing matches they were expected to win, most of them at home.

Why Grace’s advice holds up

A Test pitch has to last five days, and the side batting first usually gets the best of it. First innings in the Tests analysed averaged 343 runs; fourth innings averaged 185.

Toss winners who batted won 57% of their decided Tests, against the 51% expected by our team ratings. Those who bowled did little better than their ratings suggested they should.

Most captains already follow Grace’s advice. In India, almost all do. New Zealand supplies the strongest reason to question it: captains there usually bowl first and have done well from the decision. Kane Williamson sent the opposition in 15 times, mostly at home, and lost only twice.

England has been less forgiving. For a punter, the decision after the toss deserves more attention than the coin itself. When visiting captains have won the toss in England and bowled, England have won far more often than our ratings expected. Babar’s attempt to use the conditions belongs alongside those of Ponting, Dhoni and Holder: each gave England first use of the pitch, and each lost.

Grace was right. Think about it, consult a colleague if you must, then bat.